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This paper introduces the concept of random context representations for the transition probabilities of a finite-alphabet stochastic process. Processes with these representations generalize context tree processes (a.k.a. variable length…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-09 Roberto Imbuzeiro Oliveira

The difference in restricted mean survival times between two groups is a clinically relevant summary measure. With observational data, there may be imbalances in confounding variables between the two groups. One approach to account for such…

Applications · Statistics 2014-10-17 Andrew Wey , David Vock , John Connett , Kyle Rudser

We consider conditional estimation in two-stage sample size adjustable designs and the following bias. More specifically, we consider a design which permits raising the sample size when interim results look rather promising, and, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-27 Per Broberg , Frank Miller

Pairwise Choice Markov Chains (PCMC) have been recently introduced to overcome limitations of choice models based on traditional axioms unable to express empirical observations from modern behavior economics like context effects occurring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-03 Alix Lhéritier

Interval-censored data analysis is important in biomedical statistics for any type of time-to-event response where the time of response is not known exactly, but rather only known to occur between two assessment times. Many clinical trials…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-12 Weichi Yao , Halina Frydman , Jeffrey S. Simonoff

It is well-known that combining life annuities and death benefits introduce opposite effects in payments with respect to the mortality risk on the lifetime of the insured. In a general multi-state framework with multiple product types, such…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-10-04 Jamaal Ahmad

We propose a censored quantile regression estimator motivated by unbiased estimating equations. Under the usual conditional independence assumption of the survival time and the censoring time given the covariates, we show that the proposed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-04 Chenlei Leng , Xingwei Tong

This paper investigates biological models that represent the transition equation from a system in the past to a system in the future. It is shown that finite-time Lyapunov exponents calculated along a locally pullback attractive solution…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-02-19 Jesús Dueñas , Iacopo P. Longo , Rafael Obaya

The empirical Bayes estimators in mixed models are useful for small area estimation in the sense of increasing precision of prediction for small area means, and one wants to know the prediction errors of the empirical Bayes estimators based…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-07 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

To draw real-world evidence about the comparative effectiveness of multiple time-varying treatments on patient survival, we develop a joint marginal structural survival model and a novel weighting strategy to account for time-varying…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-08 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Himanshu Joshi , Erick Scott , Fan Li

In longitudinal observational studies with time-to-event outcomes, a common objective in causal analysis is to estimate the causal survival curve under hypothetical intervention scenarios. The g-formula is a useful tool for this analysis.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-14 Xinyuan Chen , Liangyuan Hu , Fan Li

Multi-state survival analysis considers several potential events of interest along a disease pathway. Such analyses are crucial to model complex patient trajectories and are increasingly being used in epidemiological and health economic…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-30 Jonathan Broomfield , Caroline E. Weibull , Michael J. Crowther

Markov Chains with variable length are useful stochastic models for data compression that avoid the curse of dimensionality faced by that full Markov Chains. In this paper we introduce a Variable Length Markov Chain whose transition…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-01 Adriano Zanin Zambom , Seonjin Kim , Nancy Lopes Garcia

In this paper, we demonstrate through the use of matrix calculus a transparent analysis of fractional inhomogeneous Markov models for life insurance where transition matrices commute. The resulting formulae are intuitive matrix…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-25 Martin Bladt

A class of multivariate mixed survival models for continuous and discrete time with a complex covariance structure is introduced in a context of quantitative genetic applications. The methods introduced can be used in many applications in…

Applications · Statistics 2014-05-06 Rafael Pimentel Maia , Per Madsen , Rodrigo Labouriau

A massively parallel method to build large transition rate matrices from temperature accelerated molecular dynamics trajectories is presented. Bayesian Markov model analysis is used to estimate the expected residence time in the known state…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-05-30 Thomas D Swinburne , Danny Perez

Motivated by the need to analyze continuously updated data sets in the context of time-to-event modeling, we propose a novel nonparametric approach to estimate the conditional hazard function given a set of continuous and discrete…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Daphné Aurouet , Valentin Patilea

In the linear random effects model, when distributional assumptions such as normality of the error variables cannot be justified, moments may serve as alternatives to describe relevant distributions in neighborhoods of their means.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-05 Ping Wu , Winfried Stute , Li-Xing Zhu

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-03 Nicholas W. Barendregt , Emily G. Webb , Zachary P. Kilpatrick

In this paper, we consider a wide class of time-varying multivariate causal processes which nests many classic and new examples as special cases. We first prove the existence of a weakly dependent stationary approximation for our model…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-02 Jiti Gao , Bin Peng , Wei Biao Wu , Yayi Yan