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Stationary time series models built from parametric distributions are, in general, limited in scope due to the assumptions imposed on the residual distribution and autoregression relationship. We present a modeling approach for univariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-04 Maria DeYoreo , Athanasios Kottas

We introduce a rate balance principle for general (not necessarily Markovian) stochastic processes. Special attention is given to processes with birth and death like transitions, for which it is shown that for any state $i$, the rate of two…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-12 Binyamin Oz , Ivo Adan , Moshe Haviv

The population-attributable fraction (PAF) expresses the proportion of events that can be ascribed to a certain exposure in a certain population. It can be strongly time-dependent because either exposure incidence or excess risk may change…

While right-censored time-to-event outcomes have been studied for decades, handling time-to-event covariates, also known as right-censored covariates, is now of growing interest. So far, the literature has treated right-censored covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-10 Jesus E. Vazquez , Marissa C. Ashner , Yanyuan Ma , Karen Marder , Tanya P. Garcia

This work extends causal inference with stochastic confounders. We propose a new approach to variational estimation for causal inference based on a representer theorem with a random input space. We estimate causal effects involving latent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-26 Thanh Vinh Vo , Pengfei Wei , Wicher Bergsma , Tze-Yun Leong

Instrumental variables (IV) are a useful tool for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. IV methods are well developed for uncensored outcomes, particularly for structural linear equation models, where simple…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-01 Behzad Kianian , Jung In Kim , Jason P. Fine , Limin Peng

To improve precision of estimation and power of testing hypothesis for an unconditional treatment effect in randomized clinical trials with binary outcomes, researchers and regulatory agencies recommend using g-computation as a reliable…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-29 Ting Ye , Marlena Bannick , Yanyao Yi , Jun Shao

When a mathematical or computational model is used to analyse some system, it is usual that some parameters resp.\ functions or fields in the model are not known, and hence uncertain. These parametric quantities are then identified by…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-01 Hermann G. Matthies , Elmar Zander , Bojana Rosic , Alexander Litvinenko

This paper proposes a new framework for constructing interval-valued state estimators for discrete-time linear and switched linear systems. Our main results are (i) the derivation of the tightest interval-valued estimator for linear…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-18 Laurent Bako , Vincent Andrieu

Screening and surveillance are routinely used in medicine for early detection of disease and close monitoring of progression. Biomarkers are one of the primarily tools used for these tasks, but their successful translation to clinical…

Learning causal effects of a binary exposure on time-to-event endpoints can be challenging because survival times may be partially observed due to censoring and systematically biased due to truncation. In this work, we present debiased…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-15 Eric R. Morenz , Charles J. Wolock , Marco Carone

The most popular approach for analyzing survival data is the Cox regression model. The Cox model may, however, be misspecified, and its proportionality assumption may not always be fulfilled. An alternative approach for survival prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-17 Marvin N. Wright , Theresa Dankowski , Andreas Ziegler

Inference for causal effects can benefit from the availability of an instrumental variable (IV) which, by definition, is associated with the given exposure, but not with the outcome of interest other than through a causal exposure effect.…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-01-13 Stijn Vansteelandt , Jack Bowden , Manoochehr Babanezhad , Els Goetghebeur

The inverse probability weighting approach is popular for evaluating treatment effects in observational studies, but extreme propensity scores could bias the estimator and induce excessive variance. Recently, the overlap weighting approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Chao Cheng , Fan Li , Laine Thomas , Fan Li

We propose and study properties of maximum likelihood estimators in the class of conditional transformation models. Based on a suitable explicit parameterisation of the unconditional or conditional transformation function, we establish a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-22 Torsten Hothorn , Lisa Möst , Peter Bühlmann

Many epidemiological and clinical studies aim at analyzing a time-to-event endpoint. A common complication is right censoring. In some cases, it arises because subjects are still surviving after the study terminates or move out of the study…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-10 Andrew Ying

We investigate under which conditions a single simulation of joint default times at a final time horizon can be decomposed into a set of simulations of joint defaults on subsequent adjacent sub-periods leading to that final horizon. Besides…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-05-02 Damiano Brigo , Jan-Frederik Mai , Matthias Scherer

A key question in clinical practice is accurate prediction of patient prognosis. To this end, nowadays, physicians have at their disposal a variety of tests and biomarkers to aid them in optimizing medical care. These tests are often…

The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-03 T. Martinussen , S. Vansteelandt , E. J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , D. M. Zucker

We consider open systems generated from one-dimensional maps that admit a finite Markov partition and use the recently developed theory of isospectral graph transformations to estimate a system's survival probabilities. We show that these…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2012-11-21 Leonid Bunimovich , Benjamin Webb
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