Related papers: Scenarios for the Transition to AGI
The emergence of artificial intelligence and robotics is catalyzing a profound transformation in the nature of human labor, fueling a contentious debate about the future of employment. While prominent studies predict substantial job…
Future advances in AI that automate away human labor may have stark implications for labor markets and inequality. This paper proposes a framework to analyze the effects of specific types of AI systems on the labor market, based on how much…
As the field progresses toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), there is a pressing need for more comprehensive and insightful evaluation frameworks that go beyond aggregate performance metrics. This paper introduces a unified rating…
Task-based models of AI and labor hold organizational structure fixed. We introduce agent capital: AI that reduces coordination costs, expanding spans of control and enabling endogenous task creation. Five propositions characterize how…
AI risks are typically framed around physical threats to humanity, a loss of control or an accidental error causing humanity's extinction. However, I argue in line with the gradual disempowerment thesis, that there is an underappreciated…
Quantifying the workplace productivity effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence is now central to economics, management, and public policy. The deployment of AI tools in customer service, writing, software development, and consulting…
We propose that AI automation is a continuum between: (i) crashing waves where AI capabilities surge abruptly over small sets of tasks, and (ii) rising tides where the increase in AI capabilities is more continuous and broad-based. We test…
Everyone from AI executives and researchers to doomsayers, politicians, and activists is talking about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Yet, they often don't seem to agree on its exact definition. One common definition of AGI is an AI…
This study investigates the labor market consequences of AI by analyzing near real-time changes in employment status and work hours across occupations in relation to advances in AI capabilities. We construct a dynamic Occupational AI…
The welfare of modern societies has been intrinsically linked to wage labour. With some exceptions, the modern human has to sell her labour-power to be able reproduce biologically and socially. Thus, a lingering fear of technological…
In this study, we explored the progression trajectories of artificial intelligence (AI) systems through the lens of complexity theory. We challenged the conventional linear and exponential projections of AI advancement toward Artificial…
We examine whether substantial AI automation could accelerate global economic growth by about an order of magnitude, akin to the economic growth effects of the Industrial Revolution. We identify three primary drivers for such growth: 1) the…
Dreams of machines rivaling human intelligence have shaped the field of AI since its inception. Yet, the very meaning of human-level AI or artificial general intelligence (AGI) remains elusive and contested. Definitions of AGI embrace a…
Generative AI is altering work processes, task composition, and organizational design, yet its effects on employment and the macroeconomy remain unresolved. In this review, we synthesize theory and empirical evidence at three levels. First,…
The evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) has profoundly impacted human society, driving significant advancements in multiple sectors. AGI, distinguished by its ability to execute diverse real-world tasks with efficiency and…
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) or Strong AI aims to create machines with human-like or human-level intelligence, which is still a very ambitious goal when compared to the existing computing and AI systems. After many hype cycles and…
The rapid rise of Generative AI (GenAI) tools has sparked debate over their role in complementing or replacing human workers across job contexts. We present a mathematical framework that models jobs, workers, and worker-job fit, introducing…
AI agents are continually optimized for tasks related to human work, such as software engineering and professional writing, signaling a pressing trend with significant impacts on the human workforce. However, these agent developments have…
It is widely assumed that increases in economic productivity necessarily lead to economic growth. In this paper, it is shown that this is not always the case. An idealized model of an economy is presented in which a new technology allows…
Generative AI compresses within-task skill differences while shifting economic value toward concentrated complementary assets, creating an apparent paradox: the technology that equalizes individual performance may widen aggregate…