Related papers: Scenarios for the Transition to AGI
Experimental evidence confirms that AI tools raise worker productivity, but also that sustained use can erode the expertise on which those gains depend. We develop a dynamic model in which a decision-maker chooses AI usage intensity for a…
In this report, we review the current state of methodologies to forecast the arrival of artificial general intelligence, assess their reliability, and analyze the implications for strategy and policy. We synthesize diverse forecasting…
The capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) lie along a jagged frontier, where AI systems surprisingly fail on tasks that humans find easy and succeed on tasks that humans find hard. To investigate user reactions to this phenomenon, we…
The recent wave of AI and automation has been argued to differ from previous General Purpose Technologies (GPTs), in that it may lead to rapid change in occupations' underlying task requirements and persistent technological unemployment. In…
Existing theoretical universal algorithmic intelligence models are not practically realizable. More pragmatic approach to artificial general intelligence is based on cognitive architectures, which are, however, non-universal in sense that…
Recent work has proposed artificial intelligence (AI) models that can learn to decide whether to make a prediction for an instance of a task or to delegate it to a human by considering both parties' capabilities. In simulations with…
We derive the first closed-form condition under which artificial intelligence (AI) capital profits could sustainably finance a universal basic income (UBI) without relying on new taxation or the creation of new jobs. In a Solow-Zeira…
Current and foreseeable GenAI models are not capable of achieving artificial general intelligence because they are burdened with anthropogenic debt. They depend heavily on human input to provide well-structured problems, architecture, and…
Traditionally, AI has been modeled within economics as a technology that impacts payoffs by reducing costs or refining information for human agents. Our position is that, in light of recent advances in generative AI, it is increasingly…
The relationship between humans and artificial intelligence is no longer science fiction -- it's a growing reality reshaping how we live and work. AI has moved beyond research labs into everyday life, powering customer service chats,…
Exciting advances in generative artificial intelligence (AI) have sparked concern for jobs, education, productivity, and the future of work. As with past technologies, generative AI may not lead to mass unemployment. But, unlike past…
We discuss the challenges and propose a framework for evaluating engineering artificial general intelligence (eAGI) agents. We consider eAGI as a specialization of artificial general intelligence (AGI), deemed capable of addressing a broad…
This contribution presents a very brief and critical discussion on automated machine learning (AutoML), which is categorized here into two classes, referred to as narrow AutoML and generalized AutoML, respectively. The conclusions yielded…
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is poised to revolutionize a variety of sectors, including healthcare, finance, transportation, and education. Within healthcare, AGI is being utilized to analyze clinical medical notes, recognize…
Generative AI (GenAI) is rapidly transforming knowledge work, yet its implications for organizational hierarchies remain poorly understood. Unlike earlier automation technologies, GenAI can both perform tasks autonomously and assist human…
Large Language Model (LLM)-based generative AI systems, such as ChatGPT, demonstrate zero-shot learning capabilities across a wide range of downstream tasks. Owing to their general-purpose nature and potential to augment or even automate…
Intelligence can be defined as a predominantly human ability to accomplish tasks that are generally hard for computers and animals. Artificial Intelligence [AI] is a field attempting to accomplish such tasks with computers. AI is becoming…
Little demonstrable progress has been made toward AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) since the term was coined some 20 years ago. In spite of the fantastic breakthroughs in Statistical AI such as AlphaZero, ChatGPT, and Stable Diffusion…
As AI adoption accelerates, research on its economic impacts becomes a salient source to consider for stakeholders of AI policy. Such research is however still in its infancy, and one in need of review. This paper aims to accomplish just…
Recent advances in AI -- including generative approaches -- have resulted in technology that can support humans in scientific discovery and forming decisions, but may also disrupt democracies and target individuals. The responsible use of…