Related papers: Scenarios for the Transition to AGI
The integration of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) into economic production represents a transformative shift with profound implications for labor markets, income distribution, and technological growth. This study extends the Constant…
Artificial Intelligence (AI) will change human work by taking over specific job tasks, but there is a debate which tasks are susceptible to automation, and whether AI will augment or replace workers and affect wages. By combining data on…
The emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) labor, including AI agents and autonomous systems operating at near-zero marginal cost, reduces the marginal productivity of human labor, ultimately pushing wages toward zero. As AGI…
Current AI systems are better than humans in some knowledge dimensions but weaker in others. Guided by the long-standing vision of machine intelligence inspired by the Turing Test, AI developers increasingly seek to eliminate this "jagged"…
This paper develops a unified framework for evaluating the optimal degree of task automation. Moving beyond binary automate-or-not assessments, we model automation intensity as a continuous choice in which firms minimize costs by selecting…
Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the labor market by changing the task content of occupations. This study investigates the impact of AI development on the emergence of new work, employment, and wages in the United States from 2015…
This paper presents a multidisciplinary task approach for assessing the impact of artificial intelligence on the future of work. We provide definitions of a task from two main perspectives: socio-economic and computational. We propose to…
Generative Artificial Intelligence constitutes a new wave of automation. There is broad agreement among economists that humanity is potentially entering into a period of profound change. However, significant uncertainties and disagreements…
Research has a long history of discussing what is superior in predicting certain outcomes: statistical methods or the human brain. This debate has repeatedly been sparked off by the remarkable technological advances in the field of…
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is increasingly being discussed not only as a tool, but also as a potential subject with personal and therefore moral status. In our opinion, the currently dominant alignment strategies, which focus on…
A central socioeconomic concern about Artificial Intelligence is that it will lower wages by depressing the labor share - the fraction of economic output paid to labor. We show that declining labor share is more likely to raise wages. In a…
This paper examines the profound challenges that transformative advances in AI towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will pose for economists and economic policymakers. I examine how the Age of AI will revolutionize the basic…
What looks like acceleration can be a quiet transfer of burden from the present to the future. Attempts to replace human labor with AI systems are often presented as rational responses to technological progress, but that view is often…
The Fourth Industrial Revolution commonly refers to the accelerating technological transformation that has been taking place in the 21st century. Economic growth theories which treat the accumulation of knowledge and its effect on…
The rise of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) marks an existential rupture in economic and political order, dissolving the historic boundaries between labor and capital. Unlike past technological advancements, AGI is both a worker and…
Common narratives about automation often pit new technologies against workers. The introduction of advanced machine tools, industrial robots, and AI have all been met with concern that technological progress will mean fewer jobs. However,…
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been a long-standing goal of humanity, with the aim of creating machines capable of performing any intellectual task that humans can do. To achieve this, AGI researchers draw inspiration from the…
Generative AI is rapidly reshaping creative work, raising critical questions about its beneficiaries and societal implications. This study challenges prevailing assumptions by exploring how generative AI interacts with diverse forms of…
From early days, a key and controversial question inside the artificial intelligence community was whether Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is achievable. AGI is the ability of machines and computer programs to achieve human-level…
Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools are rapidly adopted in the workplace and in education, yet the empirical evidence on AI's impact remains mixed. We propose a model of human-AI interaction to better understand and analyze…