Related papers: Two universal pathways in demographic transition
The link between age and migration propensity is long established, but existing models of country-level net migration ignore the effect of population age distribution on past and projected migration rates. We propose a method to estimate…
We examine the dynamics of an age-structured population model in which the life expectancy of an offspring may be mutated with respect to that of the parent. While the total population of the system always reaches a steady state, the…
In this paper, we extend the demographic eco-evolutionary game approach, based on explicit birth and death dynamics instead of abstract "fitness" interpreted as an abstract "Malthusian parameter", by the introduction of the delay resulting…
Well protected human and laboratory animal populations with abundant resources are evolutionary unprecedented, and their survival far beyond reproductive age may be a byproduct rather than tool of evolution. Physical approach, which takes…
Human aging is marked by a steady rise in the risk of dying with age-a process demographers call senescence. Over the past century, life expectancy has risen dramatically, but is this because we are aging slower, or simply starting it…
The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to…
The global population growth from 10,000 BC to 2023 is discussed within the Verhulst scaling equation and its extensions framework. The analysis focuses on per the capita global population rate coefficient Gp(P)=[dP(t)/P(t)]/dt=dlnP(t)/d,…
The main substance of the paper concerns the growth rate and the classification (ergodicity, transience) of a family of random trees. In the basic model, new edges appear according to a Poisson process of parameter $\lambda$ and leaves can…
Despite its radical assumption of ecological equivalence between species, neutral biodiversity theory can often provide good fits to species abundance distributions observed in nature. Major criticisms of neutral theory have focused on…
Child mortality is an important population health indicator. However, many countries lack high-quality vital registration to measure child mortality rates precisely and reliably over time. Research endeavors such as those by the United…
Motivated by modeling the dynamics of a population living in a flowing medium where the environmental factors are random in space, we have studied an asymmetric variant of the one-dimensional contact process, where the quenched random…
The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…
Pathway idea is a switching mechanism by which one can go from one functional form to another, and to yet another. It is shown that through a parameter $\alpha$, called the pathway parameter, one can connect generalized type-1 beta family…
We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration rates for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net…
Suitable assumptions for the Gompertz mortality law take into account the break in the time development observed recently by Wilmoth et al. They show how a drastic reduction in the birth rate and improved living conditions lead to a drastic…
Epochal dynamics, in which long periods of stasis in population fitness are punctuated by sudden innovations, is a common behavior in both natural and artificial evolutionary processes. We use a recent quantitative mathematical analysis of…
Migration between different habitats is ubiquitous among biological populations. In this Letter, we study a simple quasispecies model for evolution in two different habitats, with different fitness landscapes, coupled through one-way…
The cell cycle duration is a variable cellular phenotype that underlies long-term population growth and age structures. By analyzing the stationary solutions of a branching process with heritable cell division times, we demonstrate…
In evolutionary processes, population structure has a substantial effect on natural selection. Here, we analyze how motion of individuals affects constant selection in structured populations. Motion is relevant because it leads to changes…
We consider two versions of stochastic population models with mutation and selection. The first approach relies on a multitype branching process; here, individuals reproduce and change type (i.e., mutate) independently of each other,…