Related papers: Two universal pathways in demographic transition
We consider a continuous time Markov process on $\mathbb{N}_0$ which can be interpreted as generalized alternating birth-death process in a non-autonomous random environment. Depending on the status of the environment the process either…
The process of urbanization is one of the most important phenomenon of our societies and it is only recently that the availability of massive amounts of geolocalized historical data allows us to address quantitatively some of its features.…
We use a two-sex partial differential equation (PDE) model based on the Grandmother Hypothesis. We build on an earlier model by Kim et al. [27] by allowing for evolution in both longevity and age at last birth, and also assuming that…
We develop a linear one-sex dynamical model of human population reproduction through marriage. In our model, a woman may marry and divorce multiple times; however, only women who are currently married are assumed to bear children. The…
We study the dynamics of an age-structured population in which the life expectancy of an offspring may be mutated with respect to that of its parent. When advantageous mutation is favored, the average fitness of the population grows…
We introduce a broad class of spatial models to describe how spatially heterogeneous populations live, die, and reproduce. Individuals are represented by points of a point measure, whose birth and death rates can depend both on spatial…
Given a discrete spatial structure $X$, we define continuous-time branching processes that model a population breeding and dying on $X$. These processes are usually called branching random walks. They are characterized by breeding rates…
This paper sets out a forecasting method that employs a mixture of parametric functions to capture the pattern of fertility with respect to age. The overall level of cohort fertility is decomposed over the range of fertile ages using a…
In unicellular organisms such as bacteria and in most viruses, mutations mainly occur during reproduction. Thus, genotypes with a high birth rate should have a higher mutation rate. However, standard models of asexual adaptation such as the…
Well protected human and laboratory animal populations with abundant resources are evolutionary unprecedented. Physical approach, which takes advantage of their extensively quantified mortality, establishes that its dominant fraction yields…
We consider a bilateral birth-death process characterized by a constant transition rate $\lambda$ from even states and a possibly different transition rate $\mu$ from odd states. We determine the probability generating functions of the even…
This paper shows that differentiating the lifetimes of two phenotypes independently from their fertility can lead to a qualitative change in the equilibrium of a population: since survival and reproduction are distinct functional aspects of…
In this paper we study the iterated birth process of which we examine the first-passage time distributions and the hitting probabilities. Furthermore, linear birth processes, linear and sublinear death processes at Poisson times are…
At the turn of the 21st century, urban development has experienced a paradigm shift so that the quest for smarter cities has become a priority agenda, with the direct participation of industry, policymakers, practitioners, and the…
We introduce a class of branching processes in which the reproduction or lifetime distribution at a given time depends on the total cumulative number of individuals who have been born in the population until that time. We focus on a…
Families form the basis of society, and anthropologists have characterised various family systems. This study developed a multi-level evolutionary model of pre-industrial agricultural societies to simulate the evolution of family systems…
Branching processes are models used to describe populations that reproduce and die over time. In the classical setting, an individual's reproductive capacity remains constant throughout its lifetime. However, in real-world situations,…
Scientific and technological frontiers advance through punctuated dynamics, yet the principles governing these dynamics remain poorly understood. Here we collect and analyze datasets tracking the evolution of frontiers across 9 different…
Aging is thought to be a consequence of intrinsic breakdowns in how genetic information is processed. But mounting experimental evidence suggests that aging can be slowed. To help resolve this mystery, I derive a mortality equation which…
Many interventions in global health save lives. One criticism sometimes lobbed at these interventions invokes the spirit of Malthus. The good done, the charge goes, is offset by the harm of spreading the earth's limited resources more…