Related papers: Two universal pathways in demographic transition
We introduce a model to study the impact of catastrophes on evolutionary paths. If we do not allow catastrophes the number of changes in the maximum fitness of a population grows logarithmically with respect to time. Allowing catastrophes…
We consider a birth-death process with the birth rates $i\lambda$ and death rates $i\mu +i(i-1)\theta$, where $i$ is the current state of the process. A positive competition rate $\theta$ is assumed to be small. In the supercritical case…
The transition of several East and Central European countries and the countries of the Former Soviet Union from the socialist economic system to the capitalist one is studied. A recently developed microeconomic model for the personal income…
Estimation of stillbirth rates globally is complicated because of the paucity of reliable data from countries where most stillbirths occur. We compiled data and developed a Bayesian hierarchical temporal sparse regression model for…
Population diversity is crucial in evolutionary algorithms as it helps with global exploration and facilitates the use of crossover. Despite many runtime analyses showing advantages of population diversity, we have no clear picture of how…
We investigate the time evolution and stationary states of a stochastic, spatially discrete, population model (contact process) with spatial heterogeneity and imposed drift (wind) in one- and two-dimensions. We consider in particular a…
In this working paper, I developed a suite of macroeconomic models that shed light on the intricate relationship between economic development, health, and fertility. These innovative models conceptualize health as an intermediate good,…
Most population projection models require age-specific information on net migration totals as a key demographic component of population change. Existing methods for predicting future patterns of net migration by age have proven inadequate.…
Japan's population is shrinking, the share of working-age people is falling, and the number of elderly is growing fast. These trends squeeze public finances from both sides--fewer people paying taxes and more people drawing on pensions and…
The expression "wage transition" refers to the fact that over the past two or three decades in all developed economies wage increases have levelled off. There has been a widening divergence and decoupling between wages on the one hand and…
This paper proposes a two blocks and three regions economic geography model that can account for the most salient stylized facts experienced by Eastern European transition economies during the period 1990 2005. In contrast to the existing…
Standard intergenerational measures have been shown to understate the long-run persistence of socioeconomic advantages in developed countries. We study theoretically and empirically whether this pattern extends to less developed settings,…
Heterogeneities in environmental conditions often induce corresponding heterogeneities in the distribution of species. In the extreme case of a localized patch of increased growth rates, reproducing populations can become strongly…
We study age-structured branching models with reproduction law depending on the remaining lifetime of the parent. The lifespan of an individual is decided at its birth and its remaining lifetime decreases at the unit speed. The models…
If we follow an asexually reproducing population through time, then the amount of time that has passed since the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of all current individuals lived will change as time progresses. The resulting "MRCA age"…
Populations exhibiting partial migration consist of two groups of individuals: Those that mi- grate between habitats, and those that remain fixed in a single habitat. We propose several discrete-time population models to investigate the…
We study the probabilistic evolution of a birth and death continuous time measure-valued process with mutations and ecological interactions. The individuals are characterized by (phenotypic) traits that take values in a compact metric…
We consider immigration processes with binomial catastrophes and random survival parameters. Two sources of randomness are analyzed. In the first model, the survival parameter is independently resampled at each catastrophe. In the second…
We develop a Bayesian state-space model for analyzing the dynamic evolution of income distributions using grouped income data. The model combines the generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2) with latent time-varying parameters…
Correlations between high life expectancy and low lifespan inequality are frequently observed. A recent article seeks to explain this phenomenon by proposing that a mortality improvement maps to life expectancy and relative lifespan…