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Genesis potential indices (GPIs) are widely used to understand the climatology of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the sign of projected future changes depends on how they incorporate environmental moisture. Recent theory combines…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-03 Daniel R Chavas , Suzana J Camargo , Michael K Tippett

Tropical cyclones are one of the most powerful and destructive natural phenomena on earth. Tropical storms and heavy rains can cause floods, which lead to human lives and economic loss. Devastating winds accompanying cyclones heavily affect…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-07-15 Koushik Biswas , Sandeep Kumar , Ashish Kumar Pandey

A comprehensive statistical model for vertical profiles of the horizontal wind and temperature throughout the troposphere is presented. The model is based on radiosonde measurements of wind and temperature during several years. The profiles…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2010-12-21 A. Virtser , Yu. Shtemler , E. Golbraikh

Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting is critical for disaster warning and emergency response. Deep learning methods address computational challenges but often neglect physical relationships between TC attributes, resulting in predictions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Lei Liu , Xiaoning Yu , Kang Chen , Jiahui Huang , Tengyuan Liu , Hongwei Zhao , Bin Li

Tropical cyclones are known to expand to an equilibrium size on the $f$-plane, but the expansion process is not understood. In this study, an analytical model for tropical cyclone size expansion on the $f$-plane is proposed. Conceptually,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-10-23 Danyang Wang , Dan Chavas

Accurate cyclone forecasting is essential for minimizing loss of life, infrastructure damage, and economic disruption. Traditional numerical weather prediction models, though effective, are computationally intensive and prone to error due…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Ethan Zachary Lo , Dan Chie-Tien Lo

The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-30 Wuqiushi Yao , Or Hadas , Yohai Kaspi

Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone (TC) risk is limited by the brevity and spatial sparsity of the historical record, particularly for the rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss. We present WHITS (Wind-focused…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Jennifer Nakamura , Upmanu Lall

The forecast of tropical cyclone trajectories is crucial for the protection of people and property. Although forecast dynamical models can provide high-precision short-term forecasts, they are computationally demanding, and current…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-01-13 Sophie Giffard-Roisin , Mo Yang , Guillaume Charpiat , Christina Kumler-Bonfanti , Balázs Kégl , Claire Monteleoni

Recent work found evidence using aquaplanet experiments that tropical cyclone size on Earth is limited by the Rhines scale, which depends on the planetary vorticity gradient, $\beta$. This study aims to examine how the Rhines scale limits…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-09-14 Kuan-Yu Lu , Daniel Chavas

Data scarcity is a primary obstacle in developing robust Machine Learning (ML) models for detecting rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones. Traditional data augmentation techniques (rotation, flipping, brightness adjustment) fail to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Marawan Yakout , Tannistha Maiti , Monira Majhabeen , Tarry Singh

Tropical cyclone reconnaissance data, such as that of Hurricane Lane, often exhibits discrepancies between flight-level wind measurements and SFMR data, leading to uncertainty in determining peak intensity. In this study, I analyze…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-18 Michael Igbinoba

Traditional methods for enhancing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from climate model outputs or projections have primarily relied on either dynamical or statistical downscaling. With recent advances in deep learning (DL) techniques, a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-10 Minh-Khanh Luong , Chanh Kieu

An open-source, physics-based tropical cyclone downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of tropical cyclones. The model is composed of three primary components: (1) a random seeding process that determines…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-06-19 Jonathan Lin , Raphael Rousseau-Rizzi , Chia-Ying Lee , Adam Sobel

It is shown that condensation and precipitation do not disturb the hydrostatic equilibrium if the local pressure sink (condensation rate expressed in pressure units) is proportional to the local pressure, with a proportionality coefficient…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-29 Anastassia M. Makarieva , Andrei V. Nefiodov

Reliable real-time estimation of atmospheric turbulence intensity remains an open challenge for aircraft operating across diverse altitude bands, particularly over oceanic, polar, and data-sparse regions that lack operational nowcasting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Boris Kriuk , Fedor Kriuk

Tropical cyclones (TC) are among the most destructive natural disasters, causing catastrophic damage to coastal regions through extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges. Timely monitoring of tropical cyclones is crucial for reducing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Jiakang Shen , Qinghui Chen , Runtong Wang , Chenrui Xu , Jinglin Zhang , Cong Bai , Feng Zhang

A comprehensive statistical model is developed for vertical profiles of the horizontal wind and temperature throughout the troposphere based on several-years radiosonde measurements of strong winds. The profiles measured under quite…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-29 A. Virtser , I. Kupershmidt , Yu. M. Shtemler

A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-01-27 Theodoros Economou , David B. Stephenson , Christopher A. T. Ferro

Precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause disasters such as flooding, mudslides, and landslides. Predicting such precipitation in advance is crucial, giving people time to prepare and defend against these precipitation-induced…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Cheng Huang , Pan Mu , Cong Bai , Peter AG Watson