Related papers: A simple model for predicting tropical cyclone min…
Tropical cyclones remain a major threat to the lives, property and economy of communities around the South West Indian ocean (SWIO), notably Southern Africa and Madagascar. This study uses the weather research forecast (WRF) model to…
The present article is a study of the applicability of different sources of meteorological forcing for the coastal wave and storm surge models, which provide the operational marine forecasts for the coastal early warning systems (EWS) and…
We investigate the ocean wave field under Hurricane SAM (2021). Whilst measurements of waves under Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are rare, an unusually large number of quality in situ and remote measurements are available in that case. First, we…
Emergence and growth of sand dunes results from the dynamic interaction between topography, wind flow and sediment transport. While feedbacks between these variables are well studied at the scale of a single and relatively small dune, the…
We provide a condition monitoring system for wind farms, based on normal behaviour modelling using a probabilistic multi-layer perceptron with transfer learning via fine-tuning. The model predicts the output power of the wind turbine under…
We propose a minimal model for aeolian sand dunes. It combines an analytical description of the turbulent wind velocity field above the dune with a continuum saltation model that allows for saturation transients in the sand flux. The model…
This study develops a statistical conditional approach to evaluate climate model performance in wind speed and direction and to project their future changes under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario over inland and…
This study examines the decay of Hurricane Melissa (2025) as the storm crossed the mountainous terrain of Jamaica, focusing on changes in inner-core energetics. Using NOAA P-3 reconnaissance observations near the 700 hPa level, integrated…
When selecting a model to characterize an astrophysical population, it is crucial to assess whether that model fits the data and, if not, how it can be improved. To this end, posterior predictive checks (PPCs) are a widely-used statistical…
We present an analysis of the wind circulation in the vecinity of the ground surface, for a region centered around Guatemala. We used the regional climate model RegCM to simulate the atmospheric dynamics above that region during the full…
A regression-based model was previously developed to forecast the total electron content (TEC) at middle latitudes. We present a more sophisticated model using neural networks (NN) instead of linear regression. This regional model prototype…
In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events -- the cornerstone also for the categoric (as…
We present a minimal model for the formation and migration of aeolian sand dunes. It combines a perturbative description of the turbulent wind velocity field above the dune with a continuum saltation model that allows for saturation…
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting is crucial for early disaster warning and emergency decision-making. Numerous researchers have explored deep-learning methods to address computational and post-processing issues in operational…
The quantification of the interannual component of variability in climatological time series is essential for the assessment and prediction of the El Ni\~{n}o - Southern Oscillation phenomenon. This is achieved by estimating the deviation…
The perturbation theory based on typicality introduced in Ref. [1] and further refined in Refs. [2, 3] provides a powerful tool since it is intended to be applicable to a wide range of scenarios while relying only on a few parameters. Even…
Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event.…
The 2021 Texas power crisis has highlighted the vulnerability of the power system under wind extremes, particularly with the increasing penetration of energy resources that depend on weather conditions (e.g., wind energy). The current wind…
The regimes of possible global atmospheric circulation patterns in an Earth-like atmosphere are explored using a simplified GCM based on the University of Hamburg's Portable University Model for the Atmosphere with simplified (linear)…
Uranus and Neptune are the least explored planets in the Solar System. A key question regarding the two planets is the similarity of their observed flows despite the great differences in their obliquity and internal heating. To answer this…