Related papers: A simple model for predicting tropical cyclone min…
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are issued by human forecasters who evaluate spatio-temporal observations (e.g., satellite imagery) and model output (e.g., numerical weather prediction, statistical models) to produce forecasts…
This study presents a hybrid neural network model for short-term (1-6 hours ahead) surface wind speed forecasting, combining Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with observational data from ground weather stations. It relies on the MeteoNet…
The paper introduces a new methodology for assessing on-line the prediction risk of short-term wind power forecasts. The first part of this methodology consists in computing confidence intervals with a confidence level defined by the…
As part of a project to develop more accurate estimates of the risks due to tropical cyclones, we describe a non-parametric method for the statistical simulation of the location of tropical cyclone genesis. The method avoids the use of…
This paper presents a combined ocean and oil model for adaptive placement of sensors in the immediate aftermath of oilspills. A key feature of this model is the ability to correct its predictions of spill location using continual…
Predictability analysis, which focuses on perturbation growth dynamic, is a key problem in both weather and climate prediction. Among all perturbations, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) leads to maximum uncertainties in…
Modeling flow in geosystems with natural fault is a challenging problem due to low permeability of fault compared to its surrounding porous media. One way to predict the behavior of the flow while taking the effects of fault into account is…
Developing a generalized aerodynamics prediction machine learning model for finite wings with different airfoil sections is challenging due to the vast parameter space and a relative scarcity of available data. This paper presents the Large…
Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank among the most destructive natural hazards, yet their forecasting faces fundamental trade-offs: numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are computationally prohibitive and struggle to leverage historical data,…
This paper estimates local tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over…
Fast-turn around methods to predict airfoil trailing-edge noise are crucial for incorporating noise limitations into design optimization loops of several applications. Among these aeroacoustic predictive models, Amiet's theory offers the…
The present study concerns the numerical modeling of sea-wave instability under the effect of logarithmic-wind profile in hurricane conditions. The central point of the study is the calculation of the wave growth rate, which is proportional…
The present study concerns the numerical modeling of sea-wave instability under the effect of logarithmic-wind profile in hurricane conditions. The central point of the study is the calculation of the wave growth rate, which is proportional…
Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from…
Nor'easters frequently impact the North American East Coast, bringing hazardous precipitation, winds, and coastal flooding. Accurate simulation of their pressure and wind fields is essential for forecasting, risk assessment, and…
The traction force of a kite can be used to drive a cyclic motion for extracting wind energy from the atmosphere. This paper presents a novel quasi-steady modelling framework for predicting the power generated over a full pumping cycle. The…
We identify and examine the solar wind intervals near the sonic critical point (i.e., $M_S \sim 1$) observed by the Parker Solar Probe (PSP). The near subsonic wind intervals show similar properties: a low density, an extremely low…
Landfall of a tropical cyclone is the event when it moves over the land after crossing the coast of the ocean. It is important to know the characteristics of the landfall in terms of location and time, well advance in time to take…
This paper presents a novel method for obtaining the probability wave of breaking ($P_b$) of deep water, dominant wind-sea waves (that is, waves made of the energy within $\pm$30\% of the peak wave frequency) derived from Gaussian wave…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Depending on the region of maximal warming,…