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We investigate how key epidemiological parameters shape both seasonal epidemics and the persistence of dengue transmission. Our findings confirm known mechanistic drivers of epidemic variability and introduce a ranking of parameter…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-05-22 Cesar Alberto Rosales-Alcantar , Marcos A. Capistrán

Within-individual variability of health indicators measured over time is becoming commonly used to inform about disease progression. Simple summary statistics (e.g. the standard deviation for each individual) are often used but they are not…

Motivated by foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak data from Turkey, we develop a model to estimate disease risk based on a space-time record of outbreaks. The spread of infectious disease in geographical units depends on both transmission…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-19 Xiaoxiao Li , Matthew Ferrari , Michael J. Tildesley , Murali Haran

To date, we have seen the emergence of a large literature on multivariate disease mapping. That is, incidence of (or mortality from) multiple diseases is recorded at the scale of areal units where incidence (mortality) across the diseases…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-17 Garazi Retegui , María Dolores Ugarte , Jaione Etxeberria , Alan E. Gelfand

Extrinsic environmental factors influence the distribution and population dynamics of many organisms, including insects that are of concern for human health and agriculture. This is particularly true for vector-borne infectious diseases,…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-03-31 Leah R. Johnson , Tal Ben-Horin , Kevin D. Lafferty , Amy McNally , Erin Mordecai , Krijn P. Paaijmans , Samraat Pawar , Sadie J. Ryan

Vector-borne epidemics are the result of the combination of different factors such as the crossed contagions between humans and vectors, their demographic distribution and human mobility among others. The current availability of information…

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease common in tropical areas, is spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Temperature changes driven by climate affect vector ecology and expand regions of species coexistence. The combined effect of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-16 Santiago Andrés Villamil Chacón , Mauricio Santos-Vega

Mixed data refers to a type of data in which variables can be of multiple types, such as continuous, discrete, or categorical. This data is routinely collected in various fields, including healthcare and social sciences. A common goal in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-22 Mauro Florez , Anna Gottard , Carrie McAdams , Michele Guindani , Marina Vannucci

Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-07-20 Chiara Poletto , Michele Tizzoni , Vittoria Colizza

The tau statistic $\tau$ uses geolocation and, usually, symptom onset time to assess global spatiotemporal clustering from epidemiological data. We test different factors that could affect graphical hypothesis tests of clustering or bias…

Dengue remains a major global public health concern due to its high mortality and economic burden. Mathematical modeling is essential to understand its transmission mechanisms and for evaluating intervention strategies. In this paper, we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-28 Sourav Banerjee , Thomas Götz , Satyananda Panda

Non-terminal events can represent a meaningful change in a patient's life. Thus, better understanding and predicting their occurrence can bring valuable information to individuals. In a context where longitudinal markers could inform these…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-16 Juliette Ortholand , Stanley Durrleman , Sophie Tezenas du Montcel

Based on a data set obtained in a dental longitudinal study, conducted in Flanders (Belgium), the joint time to caries distribution of permanent first molars was modeled as a function of covariates. This involves an analysis of multivariate…

Applications · Statistics 2011-01-10 Alejandro Jara , Emmanuel Lesaffre , Maria De Iorio , Fernando Quintana

Wolbachia is a natural bacterium that can infect mosquitoes and reduce their ability to transmit mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, Zika, and chikungunya. Field trials and modeling studies have shown that the fraction of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-08-25 Zhuolin Qu , Tong Wu , James Mac Hyman

Health surveys provide valuable information for monitoring population health, identifying risk factors and informing public health policies. Most of the questions included are coded as ordinal variables and organized into thematic blocks.…

Air pollution is a major global health hazard, with fine particulate matter (PM10) linked to severe respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Hence, analyzing and clustering spatio-temporal air quality data is crucial for understanding…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-02 Luca Aiello , Raffaele Argiento , Sirio Legramanti , Lucia Paci

Very unhealthy air quality is consistently connected with numerous diseases. Appropriate extreme analysis and accurate predictions are in rising demand for exploring potential linked causes and for providing suggestions for the…

Applications · Statistics 2023-08-25 Kai Wang , Chengxiu Ling , Ying Chen , Zhengjun Zhang

Motile organisms can form stable agglomerates such as cities or colonies. In the outbreak of a highly contagious disease, the control of large-scale epidemic spread depends on factors like the number and size of agglomerates, travel rate…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-04-03 Pablo de Castro , Felipe Urbina , Ariel Norambuena , Francisca Guzmán-Lastra

Machine learning methods have seen increased application to geospatial environmental problems, such as precipitation nowcasting, haze forecasting, and crop yield prediction. However, many of the machine learning methods applied to mosquito…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-07-09 Adam Tonks , Trevor Harris , Bo Li , William Brown , Rebecca Smith

The COVID-19 pandemic provides new motivation for a classic problem in epidemiology: estimating the empirical rate of transmission during an outbreak (formally, the time-varying reproduction number) from case counts. While standard methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-08 Bryan Wilder , Michael J. Mina , Milind Tambe