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In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-05-29 Alka Yadav , Sourish Das , Anirban Chakraborti

Radiative forcing drives warming in the Earth system, leading to changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and associated radiative feedbacks. The link between changes in the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiative flux and SST patterns,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-03 Fabrizio Falasca , Aurora Basinski-Ferris , Laure Zanna , Ming Zhao

We consider a delay differential equation (DDE) model for El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The model combines two key mechanisms that participate in ENSO dynamics: delayed negative feedback and seasonal forcing. We perform…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-01-29 Michael Ghil , Ilya Zaliapin , Sylvester Thompson

The quantification of the interannual component of variability in climatological time series is essential for the assessment and prediction of the El Ni\~{n}o - Southern Oscillation phenomenon. This is achieved by estimating the deviation…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-14 Tommaso Proietti , Alessandro Giovannelli

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits diverse characteristics in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution. Here we develop a three-region multiscale stochastic model to show that the observed ENSO complexity can be…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-04-16 Nan Chen , Xianghui Fang , Jin-Yi Yu

The skill of the statistical as well as physics-based coupled climate models in predicting the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is limited by their inability to represent the observed ENSO nonlinearity. A promising alternative, namely…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-09-11 Shivsai Ajit Dixit , B N Goswami

The El Ni\~no phenomenon, synonymously El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is an anomalous climatic oscillation in the Equatorial Pacific that occurs once every 3-8 years. It affects the earth's climate on a global scale. Whether it is a…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Debabrata Panja , Gerrit Burgers

El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest source of interannual climate variability. Although its center of action is in the tropical Pacific, it has significant influences on the climate at the planetary scale. ENSO is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-05 Gian Luca Eusebi Borzelli , Cosimo Enrico Carniel , Sandro Carniel , Mauro Sclavo

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific coupled atmosphere/ocean system. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-10-10 John Guckenheimer , Axel Timmermann , Henk Dijkstra , Andrew Roberts

The El Ni{~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts profound influence on global climate variability, yet its prediction remains a grand challenge. Recent advances in deep learning have significantly improved forecasting skill, but the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Yanhai Gan , Yipeng Chen , Ning Li , Xingguo Liu , Junyu Dong , Xianyao Chen

The Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is modelled with the help of a simple model representing a classical damped oscillator forced by external forcing. Eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the mean equatorial Pacific thermocline…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Vladimir N. Stepanov

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently, we have developed two approaches…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-03-31 Josef Ludescher , Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan

The El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual climate variability, yet the mechanisms limiting its long-lead predictability remain unclear. Here we develop a physics-guided Deep Echo State Network (DESN) that…

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of year-to-year variations of the global climate and can lead to extreme weather conditions and disasters in various regions around the world. Here, we review two different…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-01-26 J. Ludescher , J. Meng , J. Fan , A. Bunde , H. J. Schellnhuber

We consider a highly idealized model for El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, as introduced in an earlier paper. The model is governed by a delay differential equation for sea surface temperature in the Tropical Pacific, and it…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-01-13 Ilya Zaliapin , Michael Ghil

The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-05-25 Valerio Lucarini , Frank Lunkeit , Francesco Ragone

Understanding the interactions between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is essential to studying climate variabilities and predicting extreme weather events. Here, we develop a stochastic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-11 Charlotte Moser , Nan Chen , Yinling Zhang

Accurate long-range forecasting of the El \Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital for global climate prediction and disaster risk management. Yet, limited understanding of ENSO's physical mechanisms constrains both numerical and deep…

Control of complex turbulent dynamical systems involving strong nonlinearity and high degrees of internal instability is an important topic in practice. Different from traditional methods for controlling individual trajectories, controlling…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-07-31 Jeffrey Covington , Di Qi , Nan Chen

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial ocean/atmosphere Pacific. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase and upwelling…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-07-12 John Guckenheimer , Andrew Roberts , Axel Timmermann , Henk Dijkstra