Related papers: Statistical Response of ENSO Complexity to Initial…
In this study we used the sea surface temperature (SST), El-Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time-series for the time period 1900-2012 in order to investigate plausible manifestation of sharp increases…
The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. We show for the first time…
In this article, we present a mathematical theory of the Walker circulation of the large-scale atmosphere over the tropics. This study leads to a new metastable state oscillation theory for the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a typical…
Satellite and ground-based observations are used to explore the composite oceanic - atmospheric link known as the El Ni\~no/La Ni\~na Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which is closely associated with extreme weather events (e.g. heat…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest climate fluctuation on inter-annual time-scales and has global impacts although originating in the tropical Pacific. Many point indices have been developed to describe ENSO…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a measure of sea-level atmospheric pressure variability, holds significant influence over weather patterns in North America and Northern Europe. A negative (positive) NAO value signifies increased…
Predicting the response of a system to perturbations is a key challenge in mathematical and natural sciences. Under suitable conditions on the nature of the system, of the perturbation, and of the observables of interest, response theories…
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important phenomena in climate. By studying the fluctuations of surface air temperature within one year between 1979-01-01 and 2016-12-31 of the region (30S-30N, 0E-360E) with…
The dynamics of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are succinctly captured by the Recharge Oscillator (RO) framework. However, to simulate ENSO realistically, careful choices must be made regarding the RO's key parameters. In…
Identification and quantification of possible drivers of recent climate variability remain a challenging task. This important issue is addressed adopting a non-parametric information theory technique, the Transfer Entropy and its normalized…
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two dominant modes of tropical climate variability, each with profound global weather impacts. While their individual dynamics have been widely studied,…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts global climate and societal impacts, but real-time prediction with lead times beyond one year remains challenging. Dynamical models suffer from large biases and uncertainties, while deep learning…
We show that the monthly recorded history (1878-2013) of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a descriptor of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, can be well described as a dynamic system that supports an average…
Understanding ENSO dynamics has tremendously improved over the past decades. However, one aspect still poorly understood or represented in conceptual models is the ENSO diversity in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution.…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently we have developed a network approach, which allows…
Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits significant impacts on the frequency of extreme weather events and its socio-economic implications prevail on a global scale. However, a fundamental gap still exists in understanding the…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, cause significant property damage and result in fatalities, making it crucial to understand the factors driving extreme TCs. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences TC…
Predicting sea surface temperature (SST) within the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region has been extensively studied due to its significant influence on global temperature and precipitation patterns. Statistical models such as…
Anomalies during an El Nino are dominated by a single, irregularly oscillating, mode. Equatorial dynamics has been linked to delayed-oscillator models of this mode. Usually, the El Nino mode is regarded as an unstable mode of the coupled…