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Aggregated human judgment forecasts for COVID-19 targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and…

National and local governments have implemented a large number of policies in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Evaluating the effects of these policies, both on the number of Covid-19 cases as well as on other economic outcomes is a key…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-10-25 Brantly Callaway , Tong Li

The beneficial effects of treatments vary across individuals in most studies. Treatment heterogeneity motivates practitioners to search for the optimal policy based on personal characteristics. A long-standing common practice in policy…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-06 Xuqiao Li , Ying Yan

Machine learning-based decision support systems are increasingly deployed in clinical settings, where probabilistic scoring functions are used to inform and prioritize patient management decisions. However, widely used scoring rules, such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Gerardo A. Flores , Alyssa H. Smith , Julia A. Fukuyama , Ashia C. Wilson

In recent years many important societal decisions are made by machine-learning algorithms, and many such important decisions have strict capacity limits, allowing resources to be allocated only to the highest utility individuals. For…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Eitan Bachmat , Inbal Livni Navon

Rationing of healthcare resources has emerged as an important issue, which has been discussed by medical experts, policy-makers, and the general public. We consider a rationing problem where medical units are to be allocated to patients.…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-09-28 Haris Aziz , Florian Brandl

We study the problem of estimating the parameters (i.e., infection rate and recovery rate) governing the spread of epidemics in networks. Such parameters are typically estimated by measuring various characteristics (such as the number of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-12 Lintao Ye , Philip E. Paré , Shreyas Sundaram

We review research papers which use game theory to model the decision making of individuals during an epidemic, attempting to classify the literature and identify the emerging trends in this field. We show that the literature can be…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-02-13 Sheryl L. Chang , Mahendra Piraveenan , Philippa Pattison , Mikhail Prokopenko

The design of an efficient curing policy, able to stem an epidemic process at an affordable cost, has to account for the structure of the population contact network supporting the contagious process. Thus, we tackle the problem of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-12-04 Stefania Ottaviano , Francesco De Pellegrini , Stefano Bonaccorsi , Piet Van Mieghem

Epidemiological compartmental models are useful for understanding infectious disease propagation and directing public health policy decisions. Calibration of these models is an important step in offering accurate forecasts of disease…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Nikunj Gupta , Anh Mai , Azza Abouzied , Dennis Shasha

Decisions on public health interventions to control infectious disease are often informed by computational models. Interpreting the predicted outcomes of a public health decision requires not only high-quality modelling, but also an ethical…

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forth the importance of epidemic forecasting for decision makers in multiple domains, ranging from public health to the economy as a whole. While forecasting epidemic progression is frequently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-21 Alexander Rodríguez , Harshavardhan Kamarthi , Pulak Agarwal , Javen Ho , Mira Patel , Suchet Sapre , B. Aditya Prakash

Conventional treatment policies map patient covariates to a single recommended intervention in order to maximize expected clinical outcomes. Although a rich body of causal inference methods has been developed to estimate such policies,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Laura Fuentes-Vicente , Mathieu Even , Gaëlle Dormion , Antoine Chambaz , Uri Shalit , Julie Josse

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed forecasting models at the forefront of health policy making. Predictions of mortality and hospitalization help governments meet planning and resource allocation challenges. In this paper, we consider the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-08-21 Kathryn S. Taylor , James W. Taylor

Understanding how to effectively control an epidemic spreading on a network is a problem of paramount importance for the scientific community. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for policies that mitigate the spread,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-14 Carlo Cenedese , Lorenzo Zino , Michele Cucuzzella , Ming Cao

Forecasting infectious disease outbreaks is hard. Forecasting emerging infectious diseases with limited historical data is even harder. In this paper, we investigate ways to improve emerging infectious disease forecasting under operational…

This study presents a new risk-averse multi-stage stochastic epidemics-ventilator-logistics compartmental model to address the resource allocation challenges of mitigating COVID-19. This epidemiological logistics model involves the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-12 Xuecheng Yin , I. Esra Buyuktahtakin , Bhumi P. Patel

In this research, we develop a framework to analyze the interaction between the economy and the Covid-19 pandemic using an extension of SIR epidemic model. At the outset, we assume there are two health related investments including general…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-02-14 Zachariah Sinkala , Vajira Manathunga , Bichaka Fayissa

In the absence of randomized controlled and natural experiments, it is necessary to balance the distributions of (observable) covariates of the treated and control groups in order to obtain an unbiased estimate of a causal effect of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-02 Martin Cousineau , Vedat Verter , Susan A. Murphy , Joelle Pineau

Real-time forecasting of disease outbreaks requires standardized outputs generated in a timely manner. Development of pipelines to automate infectious disease forecasts can ensure that parameterization and software dependencies are common…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2022-08-11 VP Nagraj , Chris Hulme-Lowe , Shakeel Jessa , Stephen D. Turner