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Related papers: Evaluating infectious disease forecasts with alloc…

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Existing compartmental models in epidemiology are limited in terms of optimizing the resource allocation to control an epidemic outbreak under disease growth uncertainty. In this study, we address this core limitation by presenting a…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-24 Xuecheng Yin , I. Esra Buyuktahtakin

The epidemiology of pandemics is classically viewed using geographical and political borders; however, these artificial divisions can result in a misunderstanding of the current epidemiological state within a given region. To improve upon…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-11-28 David Lyver , Mihai Nica , Corentin Cot , Giacomo Cacciapaglia , Zahra Mohammadi , Edward W. Thommes , Monica-Gabriela Cojocaru

In this paper, an optimal resource allocation framework is proposed for the allocation of critical medical resources among different units during a pandemic. The framework is developed by considering the dynamics of Pandemic, hierarchical…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-03-14 Shuvrangshu Jana , Rudrashis Majumder , Debasish Ghose

Mathematical models are increasing adopted for setting targets for disease prevention and control. As model-informed policies are implemented, however, the inaccuracies of some forecasts become apparent, for example overprediction of…

We aim to design a fairness-aware allocation approach to maximize the geographical diversity and avoid unfairness in the sense of demographic disparity. During the development of this work, the COVID-19 pandemic is still spreading in the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Hadis Anahideh , Lulu Kang , Nazanin Nezami

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems increasingly achieve expert-level predictive accuracy in healthcare, yet improvements in model performance often fail to produce corresponding gains in patient outcomes. We term this disconnect the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Rifa Ferzana

Rationing of healthcare resources is a challenging decision that policy makers and providers may be forced to make during a pandemic, natural disaster, or mass casualty event. Well-defined guidelines to triage scarce life-saving resources…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Julien Grand-Clément , You Hui Goh , Carri Chan , Vineet Goyal , Elizabeth Chuang

Background: Over the past few decades, numerous forecasting methods have been proposed in the field of epidemic forecasting. Such methods can be classified into different categories such as deterministic vs. probabilistic, comparative…

Uncertainty can be classified as either aleatoric (intrinsic randomness) or epistemic (imperfect knowledge of parameters). The majority of frameworks assessing infectious disease risk consider only epistemic uncertainty. We only ever…

As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, researchers are reporting findings of randomized trials comparing standard care with care augmented by experimental drugs. The trials have small sample sizes, so estimates of treatment effects are…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-02 Charles F. Manski , Aleksey Tetenov

Sustaining regular and infectious care during an infectious outbreak requires adequate management support for capacity allocation for regular and infectious patients. During the COVID-19 pandemic, hospitals faced severe challenges,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-17 Stef Baas , Sander Dijkstra , Richard J. Boucherie , Anne Zander

We consider the problem of learning how to optimally allocate treatments whose cost is uncertain and can vary with pre-treatment covariates. This setting may arise in medicine if we need to prioritize access to a scarce resource that…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-14 Hao Sun , Evan Munro , Georgy Kalashnov , Shuyang Du , Stefan Wager

Policy responses to COVID-19, particularly those related to non-pharmaceutical interventions, are unprecedented in scale and scope. Epidemiologists are more involved in policy decisions and evidence generation than ever before. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-20 Noah A Haber , Emma Clarke-Deelder , Joshua A Salomon , Avi Feller , Elizabeth A Stuart

We study the problem of allocating scarce societal resources of different types (e.g., permanent housing, deceased donor kidneys for transplantation, ventilators) to heterogeneous allocatees on a waitlist (e.g., people experiencing…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-13 Bill Tang , Çağıl Koçyiğit , Eric Rice , Phebe Vayanos

Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, a significant amount of effort had been put into developing techniques that predict the number of infections under various assumptions about the public policy and non-pharmaceutical interventions. While…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-12-22 Sharare Zehtabian , Siavash Khodadadeh , Damla Turgut , Ladislau Bölöni

Epidemics are a serious public health threat, and the resources for mitigating their effects are typically limited. Decision-makers face challenges in forecasting the supply and demand for these resources as prior information about the…

Efficiently allocating treatments with a budget constraint constitutes an important challenge across various domains. In marketing, for example, the use of promotions to target potential customers and boost conversions is limited by the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Toon Vanderschueren , Wouter Verbeke , Felipe Moraes , Hugo Manuel Proença

Statistical estimation in many contemporary settings involves the acquisition, analysis, and aggregation of datasets from multiple sources, which can have significant differences in character and in value. Due to these variations, the…

Applications · Statistics 2014-12-23 Quentin Berthet , Venkat Chandrasekaran

Epidemiological delays, such as incubation periods, serial intervals, and hospital lengths of stay, are among key quantities in infectious disease epidemiology that inform public health policy and clinical practice. This information is used…

Epidemics of infectious diseases posing a serious risk to human health have occurred throughout history. During recent epidemics there has been much debate about policy, including how and when to impose restrictions on behaviour.…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-04-08 Simon K. Schnyder , John J. Molina , Ryoichi Yamamoto , Matthew S. Turner