Aggregated human judgment forecasts for COVID-19 targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as tool to aid public health decision making during outbreaks.
@article{arxiv.2204.02466,
title = {Aggregating human judgment probabilistic predictions of COVID-19 transmission, burden, and preventative measures},
author = {Allison Codi and Damon Luk and David Braun and Juan Cambeiro and Tamay Besiroglu and Eva Chen and Luis Enrique Urtubey de C`esaris and Paolo Bocchini and Thomas McAndrew},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2204.02466},
year = {2022}
}