Related papers: Modeling and Forecasting Time-Dependent Mortality …
Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…
This study explores the potential of zero-shot time series forecasting, an innovative approach leveraging pre-trained foundation models, to forecast mortality rates without task-specific fine-tuning. We evaluate two state-of-the-art…
In a general way at all ages and for almost all diseases, male death rates are higher than female death rates. Here we report a case in which the opposite holds, namely for tuberculosis (TB) mortality between the ages of 5 and 25, female…
The Penna model is a strategy to simulate the genetic dynamics of age-structured populations, in which the individuals genomes are represented by bit-strings. It provides a simple metaphor for the evolutionary process in terms of the…
Cohort effects are important factors in determining the evolution of human mortality for certain countries. Extensions of dynamic mortality models with cohort features have been proposed in the literature to account for these factors under…
This work introduces a Bayesian smoothing approach for the joint graduation of mortality rates across multiple populations. In particular, dynamical linear models are used to induce smoothness across ages through structured dependence,…
Further to the proposal and application of a stochastic methodology and the resulting first exit time distribution function to life table data we introduce a theoretical framework for the estimation of the maximum deterioration age and to…
A generalisation of the Susceptible-Infectious model is made to include a time-dependent transmission rate, which leads to a close analytical expression in terms of a logistic function. The solution can be applied to any continuous function…
The aim of this paper is to propose a realistic and operational model to quantify the systematic risk of mortality included in an engagement of retirement. The model presented is built on the basis of model of Lee-Carter. The stochastic…
In cancer epidemiology using population-based data, regression models for the excess mortality hazard is a useful method to estimate cancer survival and to describe the association between prognosis factors and excess mortality. This method…
When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the…
We propose a series of methods and models in order to explore the Global Burden of Disease Study and the provided healthy life expectancy HALE estimates from the World Health Organization WHO based on the mortality mx of a population…
Indirect standardization is widely used in disease mapping to control for confounding, but relies on restrictive assumptions that may bias estimates if violated. Using data on suicide-related emergency calls, this study highlights such…
Predicting mortality-related outcomes from images offers the prospect of accessible, noninvasive, and scalable health screening. We present a method that leverages pretrained vision transformer foundation models to estimate remaining…
In this paper we summarize the main parts of the first exit time theory developed in connection to the life table data and the resulting theoretical and applied issues. Several new tools arise from the development of this theory and…
Since the 1940s, population projections have in most cases been produced using the deterministic cohort component method. However, in 2015, for the first time, in a major advance, the United Nations issued official probabilistic population…
In the study of life tables the random variable of interest is usually assumed discrete since mortality rates are studied for integer ages. In dynamic life tables a time domain is included to account for the evolution effect of the hazard…
The focus of the present paper is to forecast mortality rates for small sub-populations that are parts of a larger super-population. In this setting the assumption is that it is possible to produce reliable forecasts for the…
So fast is the growth of a culture of E. coli that it led researchers to overlook a possible death rate. As a matter of fact, the experiments done in the first half of the 20th century were unable to detect any mortality. It is only at the…
Human mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely linked together and share similarities. It is always desirable to model them simultaneously while taking their heterogeneity into account. This paper…