Related papers: Modeling and Forecasting Time-Dependent Mortality …
Simulating the population dynamics of a stage-structured population requires the knowledge of the biodemographic functions characterizing the species, namely development, mortality and fecundity. In general, development and fecundity can…
The time-to-recovery or time-to-death for various infectious diseases can vary significantly among individuals, influenced by several factors such as demographic differences, immune strength, medical history, age, pre-existing conditions,…
Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…
Battery health monitoring and prediction are critically important in the era of electric mobility with a huge impact on safety, sustainability, and economic aspects. Existing research often focuses on prediction accuracy but tends to…
In this paper we explore the life expectancy at birth in the Netherlands by based on a recent theory and a new methodology but also a classical theory of fitting and forecasting. We use the data from 1850 to 2006 provided by the Human…
This study develops a methodology by capturing both the battery aging state and degradation rate for improved life prediction performance. The aging state is indicated by six physical features of an equivalent circuit model that are…
A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. A precise model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and…
Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…
Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, ethnic group and socioeconomic status. In making social policies and pricing annuity at national and subnational levels, it is important not…
Various stochastic models have been proposed to estimate mortality rates. In this paper we illustrate how machine learning techniques allow us to analyze the quality of such mortality models. In addition, we present how these techniques can…
Life expectancy have been increasing over the past years due to better health care, feeding and conducive environment. To manage future uncertainty related to life expectancy, various insurance institutions have resolved to come up with…
The original version of Bayesian reconstruction, a method for estimating age-specific fertility, mortality, migration and population counts of the recent past with uncertainty, produced estimates for female-only populations. Here we show…
This work presents a new model and estimation procedure for the illness-death survival data where the hazard functions follow accelerated failure time (AFT) models. A shared frailty variate induces positive dependence among failure times of…
When modeling sub-national mortality rates, we should consider three features: (1) how to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to potentially improve forecast accuracy through multi-population joint modeling; (2) how…
Small area estimation using survey data can be achieved by using either a design-based or a model-based inferential approach. Design-based direct estimators are generally preferable because of their consistency, asymptotic normality, and…
We develop a theory of estimation when in addition to a sample of $n$ observed outcomes the underlying probabilities of the observed outcomes are known, as is typically the case in the context of numerical simulation modeling, e.g. in…
This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a…
How long people live depends on their health, and how it changes with age. Individual health can be tracked by the accumulation of age-related health deficits. The fraction of age-related deficits is a simple quantitative measure of human…
The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…
Survival models are used to analyze time-to-event data in a variety of disciplines. Proportional hazard models provide interpretable parameter estimates, but proportional hazards assumptions are not always appropriate. Non-parametric models…