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The Hawkes process, a self-exciting point process, has a wide range of applications in modeling earthquakes, social networks and stock markets. The established estimation process requires that researchers have access to the exact time…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-15 Lingxiao Zhou , Georgia Papadogeorgou

We investigate the properties of multifractal products of geometric Gaussian processes with possible long-range dependence and geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes driven by L\'{e}vy motion and their finite and infinite superpositions. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-12 Denis Denisov , Nikolai Leonenko

For a joint model-based and design-based inference, we establish functional central limit theorems for the Horvitz-Thompson empirical process and the H\'ajek empirical process centered by their finite population mean as well as by their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-05 Hélène Boistard , Hendrik P. Lopuhaä , Anne Ruiz-Gazen

Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes whose intensity depends on the past history, and is in general non-Markovian. Limit theorems for Hawkes processes in various asymptotic regimes have been studied in the literature. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

In this note we re-visit the fundamental question of the strong law of large numbers and central limit theorem for processes in continuous time with conditional stationary and independent increments. For convenience we refer to them as…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-05 Andreas E. Kyprianou , Victor Rivero

A point process model for order flows in limit order books is proposed, in which the conditional intensity is the product of a Hawkes component and a state-dependent factor. In the LOB context, state observations may include the observed…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-06 Emmanouil Sfendourakis , Ioane Muni Toke

Many self-exciting systems change because endogenous amplification, as opposed to exogenous forcing, varies. We study a Hawkes process with fixed background rate and kernel, but piecewise time-varying productivity. For exponential kernels…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2025-12-30 Conor Kresin , Boris Baeumer , Sophie Phillips

Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHP) are a class of point processes in which events at different coordinates interact through mutual excitation. The weighted adjacency matrix of the MHP encodes the strength of the relations, and shares its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-21 Antoine Lotz

Hamilton's principle is extended to have compatible initial conditions to the strong form. To use a number of computational and theoretical benefits for dynamical systems, the mixed variational formulation is preferred in the systems other…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2012-04-03 Jinkyu Kim

Learning the influence structure of multiple time series data is of great interest to many disciplines. This paper studies the problem of recovering the causal structure in network of multivariate linear Hawkes processes. In such processes,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-03-15 Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash , Kun Zhang , Kushagra Singhal

In a mixture of scalar fields undergoing diffusive processes governed by Fick's law, the concentration at each point evolves linearly in the concentrations at all points and independently from the other concentrations, when one considers a…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-02-06 Juan Hierro , César Dopazo

A central limit theorem is proved for some strictly stationary sequences of random variables that satisfy certain mixing conditions and are subjected to the "shrinking operators" $U_r(x):=[\max\{|x|-r,0\}]\cdot x/|x|,\ r \ge 0$. For…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-02 Richard C. Bradley , Zbigniew J. Jurek

We obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for the regular variation of the variance of partial sums of functionals of discrete and continuous-time stationary Markov processes with normal transition operators. We also construct a class…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-13 George Deligiannidis , Magda Peligrad , Sergey Utev

As a powerful tool of asynchronous event sequence analysis, point processes have been studied for a long time and achieved numerous successes in different fields. Among various point process models, Hawkes process and its variants attract…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-31 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

Quantum heat machines (QHMs) models generally assume a weak coupling to the baths. This supposition is grounded in the separability principle between systems and allows the derivation of the evolution equation for this case. In the weak…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-08-27 David Gelbwaser-Klimovsky , Alán Aspuru-Guzik

We present a unifying framework for type systems for process calculi. The core of the system provides an accurate correspondence between essentially functional processes and linear logic proofs; fragments of this system correspond to…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2015-05-29 Emmanuel Beffara

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, insurance, neuroscience,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

We develop a convergent variational perturbation theory for conditional probability densities of Markov processes. The power of the theory is illustrated by applying it to the diffusion of a particle in an anharmonic potential.

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-07 Hagen Kleinert , Axel Pelster , Mihai V. Putz

We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-14 Kar Wai Lim , Young Lee , Leif Hanlen , Hongbiao Zhao

In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of a fully-coupled slow-fast McKean-Vlasov stochastic system. Using the non-linear Poisson equation on Wasserstein space, we first establish the strong convergence in the averaging principle…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-14 Yun Li , Longjie Xie