Related papers: Why the Atlantic meridional overturning circulatio…
Tipping to an undesired state in the climate when a control parameter slowly approaches a critical value is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions rely on detecting early warning signals (EWSs) in…
The global ocean circulation plays a pivotal role in the regulation of the Earth's climate. The specific pattern and strength of circulation also determines how carbon and nutrients are cycled and via the resulting distribution of dissolved…
The ocean thermohaline circulation, also called meridional overturning circulation, is caused by water density contrasts. This circulation has large capacity of carrying heat around the globe and it thus affects the energy budget and…
Complex ocean systems such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play key roles in the climate, and current models predict shifts in their strength and area under climate change. However, the physical processes underlying these changes are…
Anticipating critical transitions in the Earth system is of great societal relevance, yet there may be intrinsic limitations to their predictability. For instance, from the theory of dynamical systems possessing multiple chaotic attractors,…
The present study investigates how global thermodynamic properties of the climate system are affected by the changes in the intensity of the imposed oceanic heat transport in an atmospheric general circulation model in aqua-planet…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is often analyzed using low-order box models to understand tipping points. Historically, these studies focus on freshwater flux as the primary bifurcation parameter, treating the…
Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…
Understanding processes that determine the global circulation of the atmosphere is necessary for long-term weather forecasting and climate studies which are critical for ensuring energy security. Processes in the atmosphere depend on many…
In this study, we examine the driving mechanism for the atmospheric overturning circulation on dry, tidally-locked rocky planets without the condensation of water vapor or other species. We find that the main driving process is the…
The general circulation of the atmosphere determines the long-term variability of weather processes. This circulation is driven by the temperature differences between the poles and the equator, causing air to move along the Earth's surface.…
The sea-ice cover of the Arctic Ocean is an important element of the climate and ocean system in the Northern Hemisphere as it impacts albedo, atmospheric pressure regimes, CO2-exchange at the ocean/atmosphere interface as well as the North…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and polar ice sheets are coupled tipping elements, allowing for potential cascading tipping events in which tipping is facilitated by their mutual interactions. However, while an AMOC…
Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…
The global ocean overturning circulation, critically dependent on the global density stratification, plays a central role in regulating climate evolution. While it is well-known that the global stratification profile exhibits a strong…
Climate models project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the 21st century, but the magnitude is highly uncertain. Some of this uncertainty is structural, as most climate models neglect increasing…
Ocean planets are volatile rich planets, not present in our Solar System, which are thought to be dominated by deep, global oceans. This results in the formation of high-pressure water ice, separating the planetary crust from the liquid…
The Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in the Southern Ocean is investigated using hydrographic observations combined with satellite observations of sea-surface height. A three-dimensional (spatial and vertical) estimate of the…
Paleoclimate proxy records and models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can transition abruptly between a strong and a weak state. Empirical warning signals in observational fingerprints indeed suggest a…