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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate system and considered to be a tipping element. There is still a large uncertainty on the critical global warming level at which the AMOC will start to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-07-30 René M. van Westen , Elian Y. P. Vanderborght , Michael Kliphuis , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a system of surface and deep currents encompassing all ocean basins, crucial to the Earth's climate. Detecting potential climatic changes in the MOC first requires a careful characterisation…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-08-26 Tomas Jonathan

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial ocean current system, could transition to a weak state. Despite severe associated climate impacts, assessing the AMOC's response under global warming and its proximity to…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-03-09 Reyk Börner , Oliver Mehling , Jost von Hardenberg , Valerio Lucarini

Machine Learning has become a pervasive tool in climate science applications. However, current models fail to address nonstationarity induced by anthropogenic alterations in greenhouse emissions and do not routinely quantify the uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-22 Simon Dräger , Maike Sonnewald

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is recognized as a tipping element within the global climate system. Central to its tipping behavior is the salt-advection feedback mechanism, which has been extensively studied in box…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-23 Elian Vanderborght , René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

Recently the global average temperature has temporarily exceeded the 1.5{\deg}C goal of the Paris Agreement, and so an overshoot of various climate tipping elements becomes increasingly likely. In this study we analyze the physical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-18 Jelle Soons , Tobias Grafke , René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a crucial part of the climate system because of its associated northward heat transport. The present-day MOC is sensitive to freshwater anomalies and may collapse to a state with a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-06-19 Qing Yi Feng , Jan P. Viebahn , Henk A. Dijkstra

The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to changes in basin integrated net evaporation is highly dependent on the zonal salinity contrast at the southern border of the Atlantic. Biases in the freshwater…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-10-26 Andrea A. Cimatoribus , Matthijs den Toom , Sybren S. Drijfhout , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element of the climate system. The current estimate of the global warming threshold for the onset of an AMOC collapse is +4.0C (uncertainty range 1.4-8C). However, such a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-30 René M. van Westen , Reyk Börner , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic surface currents associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) play a central role in regulating Earth's climate, yet their large scale dynamical response to climate variability remains poorly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Han Huang , Ningning Tao , Hongyu Wang , Teng Liu , Fei Xie , Xichen Li , Yongwen Zhang , Niklas Boers , Jingfang Fan , Deliang Chen , Xiaosong Chen

The results of a recent simulation with a complex global climate model suggest that the overturning component of the freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic could be used as an early-warning indicator of an AMOC…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-27 Erhard Reschenhofer

A catastrophic collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will have serious impacts on global climate. Based on eight AMOC proxies across the Atlantic basin Boers claimed to have found Early Warning Signals (EWS)…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-22 Xianyao Chen , Ka-Kit Tung

One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse due to the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-04 René M. van Westen , Michael Kliphuis , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the present-day climate, and could potentially collapse under sufficient freshwater or CO2-forcing. While the effect of the Bering Strait on AMOC stability…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-18 Jelle Soons , Henk A. Dijkstra

The global ocean meridional overturning circulation (GMOC) is central for ocean transport and climate variations. However, a comprehensive picture of its historical mean state and variability remains vague due to limitations in modelling…

Vertical motions across the ocean are central to processes, like CO$_2$ fixation, heat removal or pollutant transport, which are essential to the Earth's climate. This work explores 3D conveyor routes {associated with} the Atlantic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-24 Renzo Bruera , Jezabel Curbelo , Guillermo Garcia-Sanchez , Ana M. Mancho

Climate models indicate a possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) even for moderate climate change scenarios. There is considerable uncertainty in its likelihood for a given scenario and the critical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-22 Johannes Lohmann

Climate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due to the scarceness of suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-30 Oliver Mehling , Katinka Bellomo , Jost von Hardenberg

We address the issue of resilience of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) given the many indications that this dynamical system is in a multi-stable regime. A novel approach to resilience based on rare event techniques is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-07-09 Valérian Jacques-Dumas , Henk A. Dijkstra , Christian Kuehn

Projections from global climate models reveal a significant inter-model spread in future rainfall changes in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the 21st century, including alterations to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-02 Giada Cerato , Katinka Bellomo , Roberta D Agostino , Jost von Hardenberg
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