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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the Earth's climate. Evidence indicates a twentieth-century weakening, and enhanced freshwater input to the subpolar North Atlantic may further reduce overturning…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-03-13 John Bailie , Priya Subramanian , Bernd Krauskopf

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a much studied component of the climate system, because its suspected multistability is associated with tipping behaviour yielding potentially large regional and global climatic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-24 Johannes Lohmann , Valerio Lucarini

Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-24 Johannes Lohmann , Henk A. Dijkstra , Markus Jochum , Valerio Lucarini , Peter D. Ditlevsen

The Global Overturning Circulation (GOC) is a key component of the climate system, transporting heat, carbon, and salt throughout the global ocean. Previous reduced-dimensional models have sought to represent this three-dimensional…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-23 Elian Vanderborght , Henk A. Dijkstra

There is increasing concern that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may collapse this century with a disrupting societal impact on large parts of the world. Preliminary estimates of the probability of such an AMOC…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-06-18 Emma J. V. Smolders , René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) distributes heat and salt into the Northern Hemisphere via a warm surface current toward the subpolar North Atlantic, where water sinks and returns southwards as a deep cold current.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-08-01 John Bailie , Bernd Krauskopf

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exerts a major influence on global climate. There is much debate about whether the current strong AMOC may collapse as a result of anthropogenic forcing and/or internal variability.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-24 R. Chapman , P. Ashwin , J. Baker , R. A. Wood

A box model of the inter-hemispheric Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is developed, including a variable pycnocline depth for the tropical and subtropical regions. The circulation is forced by winds over a periodic channel in the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-11-07 Andrea A. Cimatoribus , Sybren S. Drijfhout , Henk A. Dijkstra

Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth's climate system where a small change can cause abrupt and potentially irreversible shifts towards a new state. Tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-10 Jasmine Noory

The current configuration of the ocean overturning involves upwelling predominantly in the Southern Ocean and sinking predominantly in the Atlantic basin. The reasons for this remain unclear, as both models and paleoclimatic observations…

The tipping of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to a 'shutdown' state due to changes in the freshwater forcing of the ocean is of particular interest and concern due to its widespread ramifications, including a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-06-09 Alannah Neff , Andrew Keane , Henk A. Dijkstra , Bernd Krauskopf

The North Atlantic Ocean circulation, fuelled by winds and surface buoyancy fluxes, carries 1.25 PettaWatts of heat poleward in the subtropics, and helps in regulating global weather and climate patterns. Here, we assess the relative…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-03 Dhruv Bhagtani , Andrew McC. Hogg , Ryan M. Holmes , Navid C. Constantinou

A defining feature of the present-day global overturning circulation (GOC) is the absence of deep water formation in the Pacific, in contrast to the Atlantic. This asymmetry, associated with higher surface salinities in the North Atlantic,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-18 Elian Vanderborght , Oliver Mehling , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Southern Ocean plays an integral role in the global climate system, exchanging heat, salt, and carbon throughout the major ocean basins via the deep, fast-flowing Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-03-16 Michael C Denes , Shane R Keating , Gary Froyland

This article deals with the investigation of the influence of topography and coastlines on the dynamics of the depth averaged Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), driven by wind and atmospheric pressure. This is achieved with the help of a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Vladimir N. Stepanov

All climate models project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the 21st century, but most models neglect increasing runoff from the Greenland ice sheet. Greenland meltwater is expected to exacerbate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-30 Oliver Mehling , Katinka Bellomo , Federico Fabiano , Marion Devilliers , Michele Petrini , Susanna Corti , Jost von Hardenberg

Anticipating a tipping point, a transition from one stable steady state to another, is a problem of broad relevance due to the ubiquity of the phenomenon in diverse fields. The steady-state nature of the dynamics about a tipping point makes…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-18 Shirin Panahi , Ling-Wei Kong , Mohammadamin Moradi , Zheng-Meng Zhai , Bryan Glaz , Mulugeta Haile , Ying-Cheng Lai

We study hysteresis properties of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under a slowly-varying North Atlantic (20$^{\circ}$N -- 50$^{\circ}$N) freshwater flux forcing in state-of-the-art Global Climate Model (GCM), the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-29 René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

Observations from the RAPID array near 26.5$^\circ$N indicate a linear decline in the AMOC over the past two decades, linked to contrasting boundary changes: a weakening western boundary contribution partly compensated by strengthening at…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-29 Qianjiang Xing , Shane Elipot , William E. Johns , Bablu Sinha , Jules Kajtar , Adam T. Blaker , Tillys Petit , Ben I. Moat , David A. Smeed

There is strong evidence that the present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is in a bi-stable regime and hence it is important to determine probabilities and pathways for noise-induced transitions between its…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-08-27 Jelle Soons , Tobias Grafke , Henk A. Dijkstra