Related papers: The context-specificity of virulence evolution rev…
Chronic viral infections can persist in an infected person for decades. From the perspective of the virus, a single infection can span thousands of generations, leading to a highly diverse population of viruses with its own complex…
The dynamics of epidemic spreading is often reduced to the single control parameter $R_0$, whose value, above or below unity, determines the state of the contagion. If, however, the pathogen evolves as it spreads, $R_0$ may change over…
Causal effect estimation in networked systems is central to data-driven decision making. In such settings, interventions on one unit can spill over to others, and in complex physical or social systems, the interaction pathways driving these…
Cooperation and competition between pathogens can alter the amount of individuals affected by a co-infection. Nonetheless, the evolution of the pathogens' behavior has been overlooked. Here, we consider a co-evolutionary model where the…
The role of direct cell-to-cell spread in viral infections - where virions spread between host and susceptible cells without needing to be secreted into the extracellular environment - has come to be understood as essential to the dynamics…
Spatio-temporal extensions of familiar compartment models for disease transmission incorporating diffusive behavior, or interactions between individuals at separate locations, are explored. The models considered have the character of…
Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission typically neglect within-host dynamics. Yet within-host dynamics - including pathogen replication, host immune responses, and interactions with microbiota - are crucial not only for…
The spread of infectious disease and the evolution of antigenically distinct strains are often modeled separately, despite strong feedbacks mediated by host immune memory and heterogeneous contacts. To tackle this challenging problem, we…
The propagations of diseases, behaviors and information in real systems are rarely independent of each other, but they are coevolving with strong interactions. To uncover the dynamical mechanisms, the evolving spatiotemporal patterns and…
This manuscript introduces a new analytical approach for studying the time evolution of disease spread on a finite size network. Our methodology can accommodate any disease with a general infectivity profile. This new approach is able to…
Viruses constantly undergo mutations with genomic changes. The propagation of variants of viruses is an interesting problem. We perform numerical simulations of the microscopic epidemic model based on network theory for the spread of…
The increase in the connectivity between hosts in recent times has facilitated the emergence of more aggressive mutant viral strains, making their containment and eradication significantly more challenging compared to the original variants.…
Pathogens drive changes in host immune systems that in turn exert pressure for pathogens to evolve. Quantifying and understanding this constant coevolutionary process has clear practical global health implications. Yet its relatively easier…
The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility.…
The evolution of many microbes and pathogens, including circulating viruses such as seasonal influenza, is driven by immune pressure from the host population. In turn, the immune systems of infected populations get updated, chasing viruses…
Evidence-informed policy on infections requires estimates of their effects on health. However, pathogenic variation, whereby occurrence of adverse outcomes depends on the infecting strain, might complicate the study of many infectious…
The viral load is known to be a chief predictor of the risk of transmission of infectious diseases. In this work, we investigate the role of the individuals' viral load in the disease transmission by proposing a new…
Biological evolution of a population is governed by the fitness landscape, which is a map from genotype to fitness. However, a fitness landscape depends on the organisms environment, and evolution in changing environments is still poorly…
Mutations sometimes increase contagiousness for evolving pathogens. During an epidemic, scientists use viral genome data to infer a shared evolutionary history and connect this history to geographic spread. We propose a model that directly…
This research presents an advanced fractional-order compartmental model designed to delve into the complexities of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, specifically accounting for the influence of environmental pathogens on disease spread. By…