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Transmission models for infectious diseases are typically formulated in terms of dynamics between individuals or groups with processes such as disease progression or recovery for each individual captured phenomenologically, without…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
The interplay between space and evolution is an important issue in population dynamics, that is in particular crucial in the emergence of polymorphism and spatial patterns. Recently, biological studies suggest that invasion and evolution…
Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…
Understanding how age-specific social contact patterns and susceptibility influence infectious disease transmission is crucial for accurate epidemic modeling. This study presents an eigenvector-based sensitivity analysis framework to…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
The Covid-19 pandemic has taken millions of lives, demonstrating the tragedy and disruption of respiratory diseases, and how difficult they can be to manage. However, there is still significant debate in the scientific community as to which…
Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…
Motile organisms can form stable agglomerates such as cities or colonies. In the outbreak of a highly contagious disease, the control of large-scale epidemic spread depends on factors like the number and size of agglomerates, travel rate…
The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior…
We study the impact of contact heterogeneity on epidemic dynamics. A system characterized by multiple susceptible populations is considered. The description of the spread of an infectious disease is obtained through the study of a system of…
Most spreading processes require spatial proximity between agents. The stationary state of spreading dynamics in a population of mobile agents thus depends on the interplay between the time and length scales involved in the epidemic process…
In this paper, we examine the long-time dynamics of an epidemic model whose diffusion and reaction terms involve nonlocal effects described by suitable convolution operators.The spreading front of the disease is represented by the free…
In this work, we aim to formalize a novel scientific machine learning framework to reconstruct the hidden dynamics of the transmission rate, whose inaccurate extrapolation can significantly impair the quality of the epidemic forecasts, by…
The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…
The COVID-19 pandemic led to widespread interest in epidemiological models. In this context the role of vaccination in influencing the spreading of the disease is of particular interest. There has also been a lot of debate on the role of…
We analyse a model that describes the propagation of many pathogens within and between many species. A branching process approximation is used to compute the probability of disease outbreaks. Special cases of aquatic environments with two…
Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements,…
During an infectious disease pandemic, it is critical to share electronic medical records or models (learned from these records) across regions. Applying one region's data/model to another region often have distribution shift issues that…
The rates of escape and reversion in response to selection pressure arising from the host immune system, notably the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response, are key factors determining the evolution of HIV. Existing methods for estimating…