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The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forth the importance of epidemic forecasting for decision makers in multiple domains, ranging from public health to the economy as a whole. While forecasting epidemic progression is frequently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-21 Alexander Rodríguez , Harshavardhan Kamarthi , Pulak Agarwal , Javen Ho , Mira Patel , Suchet Sapre , B. Aditya Prakash

We present two different approaches for modeling the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Both approaches are based on the population classes susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantined, and recovered and allow for an arbitrary number of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-11 Constantia Alexandrou , Vangelis Harmandaris , Anastasios Irakleous , Giannis Koutsou , Nikos Savva

Reaction-diffusion models have been used over decades to study biological systems. In this context, evolution equations for probability distribution functions and the associated stochastic differential equations have nowadays become…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-10-09 C. Escudero , S. B. Yuste , E. Abad , F. Le Vot

Physics-guided sampling with diffusion model priors has shown promise for solving partial differential equation (PDE) governed problems, but applications to chemically meaningful reaction-transport systems remain limited. We apply…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2026-03-06 Andrew Millard , Henrik Pedersen

Epidemic spread in a population is traditionally modeled via compartmentalized models which represent the free evolution of disease in absence of any intervention policies. In addition, these models assume full observability of disease…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-06-16 Nitin Kamra , Yizhou Zhang , Sirisha Rambhatla , Chuizheng Meng , Yan Liu

The study of infectious disease propagation is essential for understanding and controlling epidemics. One of the most useful tools for gaining insights into the spread of infectious diseases is mathematical modelling. In terms of…

In this paper, we explore the solvability and the optimal control problem for a compartmental model based on reaction-diffusion partial differential equations describing a transmissible disease. The nonlinear model takes into account the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-08-25 Pierluigi Colli , Gianni Gilardi , Gabriela Marinoschi

Many equations that model fluid behaviour are derived from systems that encompass multiple physical forces. When the equations are written in non dimensional form appropriate to the physics of the situation, the resulting partial…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2020-11-18 Susan Friedlander , Anthony Suen

Spatio-temporal extensions of familiar compartment models for disease transmission incorporating diffusive behavior, or interactions between individuals at separate locations, are explored. The models considered have the character of…

Biological Physics · Physics 2022-06-28 Joseph Rudnick , David Jasnow , Jorge Vinals

A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2023-06-28 Christoph Walker

We revisit well-established concepts of epidemiology, the Ising-model, and percolation theory. Also, we employ a spin $S$ = 1/2 Ising-like model and a (logistic) Fermi-Dirac-like function to describe the spread of Covid-19. Our analysis…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-04-28 Isys F. Mello , Lucas Squillante , Gabriel O. Gomes , Antonio C. Seridonio , M. de Souza

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-09-21 Romualdo Pastor-Satorras , Claudio Castellano , Piet Van Mieghem , Alessandro Vespignani

In this paper, we analyse propagating fronts in the context of hyperbolic theories of dissipative processes. These can be considered as a natural alternative to the more classical parabolic models. Emphasis is given toward the numerical…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-06-22 Corrado Lattanzio , Corrado Mascia , Ramon G. Plaza , Chiara Simeoni

We consider the problem of model choice for stochastic epidemic models given partial observation of a disease outbreak through time. Our main focus is on the use of Bayes factors. Although Bayes factors have appeared in the epidemic…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-16 Muteb Alharthi , Theodore Kypraios , Philip D. O'Neill

Drug resistance and strong contacts actually play crucial roles in epidemic spread in complex systems. Nevertheless, neither theoretical model or methodology is proposed to address this. We thus consider an edge-based epidemic spread model…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-09-13 Peng-Bi Cui , Lei Gao , Wei Wang

Breaking a complex bio-social phenomenon (epidemic) into its components, considering the processes that determine its dynamics, formalizing the accepted hypotheses in mathematical equations, selecting appropriate experimental and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-06-16 A. V. Sokolov , L. A. Sokolova

The epidemiology has recently witnessed great advances based on computational models. Its scope and impact are getting wider thanks to the new data sources feeding analytical frameworks and models. Besides traditional variables considered…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-11-13 David Pastor-Escuredo

The COVID-19 pandemic and the mitigation policies implemented in response to it have resulted in economic losses worldwide. Attempts to understand the relationship between economics and epidemiology has lead to a new generation of…

Mathematical models of motility are often based on random-walk descriptions of discrete individuals that can move according to certain rules. It is usually the case that large masses concentrated in small regions of space have a great…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-11-23 Carles Falcó

We review epidemiological models for the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemic during the early months of the outbreak: from February to May 2020. The aim is to propose a methodological review that highlights the following characteristics:…

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