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Producing subnational estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is a vital goal for the United Nations to reduce inequalities in mortality and well-being across the globe. There is a great disparity in U5MR between high-income and…

Applications · Statistics 2023-09-06 Connor Gascoigne , Theresa Smith , John Paige , Jon Wakefield

Estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) are used to track progress in reducing child mortality and to evaluate countries' performance related to Millennium Development Goal 4. However, for the great majority of developing…

Applications · Statistics 2015-01-20 Leontine Alkema , Jin Rou New

Accurate estimates of the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) in a developing world context are a key barometer of the health of a nation. This paper describes new models to analyze survey data on mortality in this context. We are interested in…

Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-10 Lei Fang , Wolfgang K. Härdle , Juhyun Park

The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), a critical health indicator, is typically estimated from household surveys in lower and middle income countries. Spatio-temporal disaggregation of household survey data can lead to highly variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-06 Serge Aleshin-Guendel , Jon Wakefield

Child mortality is an important population health indicator. However, many countries lack high-quality vital registration to measure child mortality rates precisely and reliably over time. Research endeavors such as those by the United…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-29 Katherine R Paulson , Taylor Okonek , Jon Wakefield

In recent years, much of the focus in monitoring child mortality has been on assessing changes in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR). However, as the U5MR decreases, the share of neonatal deaths (within the first month) tends to increase,…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-14 Monica Alexander , Leontine Alkema

Representative risk estimation is fundamental to clinical decision-making. However, risks are often estimated from non-representative epidemiologic studies, which usually underrepresent minorities. "Model-based" methods use population…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-12 Lingxiao Wang , Yan Li , Barry I. Graubard , Hormuzd A. Katki

Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-24 D. Manevski , H. Putter , M. Pohar Perme , E. F. Bonneville , J. Schetelig , L. C. de Wreede

BACKGROUND There is an increasing demand for high quality subnational estimates of under-five mortality. In low and middle income countries, where the burden of under-five mortality is concentrated, vital registration is often lacking and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-17 Katie Wilson , Jon Wakefield

Mortality patterns at a subnational level or across subpopulations are often used to examine the health of a population. In small populations, however, death counts are erratic. To deal with this problem, demographers have proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-21 Esther Denecke , Pavel Grigoriev , Roland Rau

There is an increasing focus on reducing inequalities in health outcomes in developing countries. Subnational variation is of particular interest, with geographic data used to understand the spatial risk of detrimental outcomes and to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-22 Neal Marquez , Jon Wakefield

Continuous-time multi-state survival models can be used to describe health-related processes over time. In the presence of interval-censored times for transitions between the living states, the likelihood is constructed using transition…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-24 Robson J. M. Machado , Ardo van den Hout

\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-07 Silvio C. Patricio , Paola Vazquez-Castillo

Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…

Applications · Statistics 2017-12-05 Monica Alexander , Emilio Zagheni , Magali Barbieri

Many people living in low- and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data, including many household sample surveys, are used to estimate…

We briefly communicate results of a nonparametric and robust evaluation of effects of \emph{the Fourth Millennium Development Goal of United Nations}. Main aim of the goal was reducing by two thirds, between 1990--2015, the under five…

Applications · Statistics 2015-01-15 Ewa Kosiorowska , Daniel Kosiorowski , Zygmunt Zawadzki

We investigate the decline of infant mortality in 42 low and middle income countries (LMIC) using detailed micro data from 84 Demographic and Health Surveys. We estimate infant mortality risk for each infant in our data and develop a novel…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-14 Antonio P. Ramos , Martin J. Flores , Leiwen Gao , Patrick Heuveline , Robert E. Weiss

In order to implement disease-specific interventions in young age groups, policy makers in low- and middle-income countries require timely and accurate estimates of age- and cause-specific child mortality. High quality data is not available…

The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is the number of infants per 1000 that do not survive until their first birthday. It is an important metric providing information about infant health but it also measures the society's general health status.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-26 Antonia Saravanou , Clemens Noelke , Nicholas Huntington , Dolores Acevedo-Garcia , Dimitrios Gunopulos
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