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A surrogate data analysis is presented, which is based on the fluctuations of the ``entropy'' $S$ defined in the natural time-domain [Phys. Rev. E {\bf 68}, 031106, 2003]. This entropy is not a static one as, for example, the Shannon…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 P. A. Varotsos , N. V. Sarlis , E. S. Skordas , M. S. Lazaridou

Inferring from the occurrence pattern of slow slip events (SSEs) the probability of triggering a damaging earthquake within the nearby velocity weakening portion of the plate interface is critical for hazard mitigation. Although robust…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-23 Yiming Ma , Andreas Anastasiou , Fabien Montiel

Quantifying the complexity of cardiac systems is fundamental to understanding the onset of rhythm disorders, from mild arrhythmias to life-threatening fibrillation. In this work, we investigate how chaos shows up and evolves in simplified…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-03-27 Xiaodong An , Mikael Toye , Flavio H. Fenton

In complex systems, events occur at irregular intervals that inherently encode the underlying dynamics of the system. Analyzing the temporal clustering of these events reveals critical insights into the non-random patterns and the temporal…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2026-03-20 Ambedkar Sanket Sukdeo , K. Shri Vignesh , Sachin S. Gunthe , T Narayan Rao , Amit Kumar Patra , R. I. Sujith

We analyze the statistical complexity vs. entropy plane-representation of sampled chaotic attractors as a function of the sampling period {\tau}. It is shown that if the Bandt and Pompe procedure is used to assign a probability distribution…

This paper establishes problem-specific sample complexity lower bounds for linear system identification problems. The sample complexity is defined in the PAC framework: it corresponds to the time it takes to identify the system parameters…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-03-26 Yassir Jedra , Alexandre Proutiere

Entropy has been a common index to quantify the complexity of time series in a variety of fields. Here, we introduce increment entropy to measure the complexity of time series in which each increment is mapped into a word of two letters,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-01-20 Xiaofeng Liu , Aimin Jiang , Ning Xu , Jianru Xue

Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-24 Sam A. Whitaker , Andrew Golightly , Colin S. Gillespie , Theodore Kypraios

Most methods for estimating configurational entropy from molecular simulation data yield upper limits except for harmonic systems where they are exact. Problems arise at diffusive systems and the presence of conformational transitions.…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2019-10-22 Jürgen Schlitter , Matthias Massarczyk

This work investigates whether time series of natural phenomena can be understood as being generated by sequences of latent states which are ordered in systematic and regular ways. We focus on clinical time series and ask whether clinical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Michael Hagmann , Michael Staniek , Stefan Riezler

This work proposes stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) as a practical tool to replicate clustering effects of more detailed particle-based dynamics. Inspired by membrane-mediated receptor dynamics on cell surfaces, we…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-22 Nathalie Wehlitz , Mohsen Sadeghi , Alberto Montefusco , Christof Schütte , Grigorios A. Pavliotis , Stefanie Winkelmann

Information theory on a time-discrete setting in the framework of time series analysis is generalized to the time-continuous case. Considerations of the Roessler and Lorenz dynamics as well as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process yield for…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2008-06-04 Detlef Holstein

The methods currently used to determine the scaling exponent of a complex dynamic process described by a time series are based on the numerical evaluation of variance. This means that all of them can be safely applied only to the case where…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Nicola Scafetta , Paolo Grigolini

This study addresses the problem of learning a summary causal graph on time series with potentially different sampling rates. To do so, we first propose a new causal temporal mutual information measure for time series. We then show how this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-11-03 Charles K. Assaad , Emilie Devijver , Eric Gaussier

Models defined by stochastic differential equations (SDEs) allow for the representation of random variability in dynamical systems. The relevance of this class of models is growing in many applied research areas and is already a standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-06 Umberto Picchini

We propose a simple method to estimate the parameters involved in discrete dynamical systems from time series. The method is based on the concept of controlling chaos by constant feedback. The major advantages of the method are that it…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-10 P. Palaniyandi , M. Lakshmanan

We present a method that allows to distinguish between nearly periodic and strictly periodic time series. To this purpose, we employ a conservative criterion for periodicity, namely that the time series can be interpolated by a periodic…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-11-11 Gerrit Ansmann

We review a collection of models of random simplicial complexes together with some of the most exciting phenomena related to them. We do not attempt to cover all existing models, but try to focus on those for which many important results…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-04 Omer Bobrowski , Dmitri Krioukov

Fluctuations in parameters that are typically treated as fixed play a crucial role in the behavior of complex systems. However, to date, we lack a general non-equilibrium thermodynamic treatment of such a complex system. In this Letter, to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-03-31 Tuan Pham , Deepak Gupta

Conditional differential entropy provides an intuitive measure for relatively ranking time-series complexity by quantifying uncertainty in future observations given past context. However, its direct computation for high-dimensional…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-24 Jacob Ayers , Richard Hahnloser , Julia Ulrich , Lothar Sebastian Krapp , Remo Nitschke , Sabine Stoll , Balthasar Bickel , Reinhard Furrer