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The added value of machine learning for weather and climate applications is measurable through performance metrics, but explaining it remains challenging, particularly for large deep learning models. Inspired by climate model hierarchies,…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-01-22 Tom Beucler , Arthur Grundner , Sara Shamekh , Peter Ukkonen , Matthew Chantry , Ryan Lagerquist

Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies have profoundly transformed the field of remote sensing, revolutionizing data collection, processing, and analysis. Traditionally reliant on manual interpretation and task-specific models, remote…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-02-13 Siqi Lu , Junlin Guo , James R Zimmer-Dauphinee , Jordan M Nieusma , Xiao Wang , Parker VanValkenburgh , Steven A Wernke , Yuankai Huo

AI-based climate and weather models have rapidly gained popularity, providing faster forecasts with skill that can match or even surpass that of traditional dynamical models. Despite this success, these models face a key challenge:…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-20 Jacob B. Landsberg , Elizabeth A. Barnes

Earthquake forecasting remains a significant scientific challenge, with current methods falling short of achieving the performance necessary for meaningful societal benefits. Traditional models, primarily based on past seismicity and…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-02-19 Zhang Ying , Wen Congcong , Sornette Didier , Zhan Chengxiang

Severe convective storms are among the most dangerous weather phenomena and accurate forecasts mitigate their impacts. The recently released suite of AI-based weather models produces medium-range forecasts within seconds, with a skill…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-03-11 Monika Feldmann , Tom Beucler , Milton Gomez , Olivia Martius

Deep Learning has been successfully applied to many application domains, yet its advantages have been slow to emerge for time series forecasting. For example, in the well-known Makridakis (M) Competitions, hybrids of traditional statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-26 John A. Miller , Mohammed Aldosari , Farah Saeed , Nasid Habib Barna , Subas Rana , I. Budak Arpinar , Ninghao Liu

Data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models have made significant advancements in weather forecasting, particularly in medium-range and nowcasting. However, most data-driven weather forecasting models are black-box systems that focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Wanghan Xu , Fenghua Ling , Wenlong Zhang , Tao Han , Hao Chen , Wanli Ouyang , Lei Bai

Improving the skill of medium-range (3-8 day) severe weather prediction is crucial for mitigating societal impacts. This study introduces a novel approach leveraging decoder-only transformer networks to post-process AI-based weather…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-24 Zhanxiang Hua , Ryan Sobash , David John Gagne , Yingkai Sha , Alexandra Anderson-Frey

Advances in deep learning methods for weather forecasting are creating opportunities to computationally explore the potential for steering or control of extreme weather trajectories for societal risk reduction. We present initial…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Moyan Liu , Qin Huang , Upmanu Lall

Weather foundation models (WFMs) have recently set new benchmarks in global forecast skill, yet their concrete value for the weather-sensitive infrastructure that powers modern society remains largely unexplored. In this study, we fine-tune…

Modeling environmental ecosystems is essential for effective resource management, sustainable development, and understanding complex ecological processes. However, traditional methods frequently struggle with the inherent complexity,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-06 Runlong Yu , Shengyu Chen , Yiqun Xie , Xiaowei Jia

Artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models now often outperform traditional physics-based models on common metrics while requiring orders-of-magnitude less computing resources and time. Open-access AIWP models thus hold…

The representation of nonlinear sub-grid processes, especially clouds, has been a major source of uncertainty in climate models for decades. Cloud-resolving models better represent many of these processes and can now be run globally but…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-06-08 Stephan Rasp , Michael S. Pritchard , Pierre Gentine

While AI weather models excel at short-to-medium range forecasts (up to 15 days), they frequently suffer from ill-defined "instabilities" when rolled out over longer horizons. This work addresses the lack of a formal taxonomy by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Fanny Lehmann , Firat Ozdemir , Yun Cheng , Torsten Hoefler , Sebastian Schemm , Benedikt Soja , Siddhartha Mishra

Reliable forecasts of the Earth system are crucial for human progress and safety from natural disasters. Artificial intelligence offers substantial potential to improve prediction accuracy and computational efficiency in this field, however…

Over the past decade the use of machine learning in meteorology has grown rapidly. Specifically neural networks and deep learning have been used at an unprecedented rate. In order to fill the dearth of resources covering neural networks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-26 Randy J. Chase , David R. Harrison , Gary Lackmann , Amy McGovern

AI-for-science approaches have been applied to solve scientific problems (e.g., nuclear fusion, ecology, genomics, meteorology) and have achieved highly promising results. Spatial precipitation downscaling is one of the most important…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Xuanhong Chen , Kairui Feng , Naiyuan Liu , Bingbing Ni , Yifan Lu , Zhengyan Tong , Ziang Liu

Cloud-related parameterizations remain a leading source of uncertainty in climate projections. Although machine learning holds promise for Earth system models (ESMs), many data-driven parameterizations lack interpretability, physical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-25 Arthur Grundner , Tom Beucler , Julien Savre , Axel Lauer , Manuel Schlund , Veronika Eyring

Extreme weather events pose significant challenges, thereby demanding techniques for accurate analysis and precise forecasting to mitigate its impact. In recent years, deep learning techniques have emerged as a promising approach for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-23 Shikha Verma , Kuldeep Srivastava , Akhilesh Tiwari , Shekhar Verma

AI has been proposed as an important tool to support several efforts related to nature-based climate solutions such as the detection of wildfires that affect forests and vegetation-based offsets. While this and other use-cases provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-20 Olamide Oladeji , Seyed Shahabeddin Mousavi