English

Reduced Cloud Cover Errors in a Hybrid AI-Climate Model Through Equation Discovery And Automatic Tuning

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 2025-11-25 v4

Abstract

Cloud-related parameterizations remain a leading source of uncertainty in climate projections. Although machine learning holds promise for Earth system models (ESMs), many data-driven parameterizations lack interpretability, physical consistency, and smooth integration into ESMs. Here, a two-step method is presented to improve a climate model with data-driven parameterizations. First, we incorporate a physically consistent cloud cover parameterization -- derived from storm-resolving simulations via symbolic regression, preserving interpretability while enhancing accuracy -- into the ICON global atmospheric model. Second, we apply the gradient-free Nelder-Mead optimizer to automatically recalibrate the hybrid model against Earth observations, tuning in nested stages (2-, 7-, 30- and 365-day runs) to ensure stability and tractability. The tuned hybrid model substantially reduces long-standing biases in cloud cover -- particularly over the Southern Ocean (by 75%) and subtropical stratocumulus regions (by 44%) -- and remains robust under +4K surface warming. These results demonstrate that interpretable machine-learned parameterizations, paired with practical tuning, can efficiently and transparently strengthen ESM fidelity.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2505.04358,
  title  = {Reduced Cloud Cover Errors in a Hybrid AI-Climate Model Through Equation Discovery And Automatic Tuning},
  author = {Arthur Grundner and Tom Beucler and Julien Savre and Axel Lauer and Manuel Schlund and Veronika Eyring},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2505.04358},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

40 pages, 16 figures

R2 v1 2026-06-28T23:24:23.882Z