Related papers: Outbreak-size distributions under fluctuating rate…
Dynamic properties of spreading infection through a heterogeneous population are studied numerically and analytically using a dynamic variant of Watts and Strogatz Small World Network-based stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed…
We introduce a kinetic framework for modeling the time evolution of the statistical distributions of the population densities in the three compartments of susceptible, infectious, and recovered individuals, under epidemic spreading driven…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
We study the steady state properties of an insect (spruce budworm) outbreak model in the presence of Gaussian white noise. Based on the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation the steady state solution of the probability distribution function…
We have designed a computational model of a virus spread near the outbreak threshold. Using computer simulation we studied the Susceptible - Infected - Recovered (SIR) process where in consequence of a force of habit that is manifested by…
In this study, we investigate a stochastic SIR model with media effects. The uniqueness and the existence of a global positive solution are studied. The sufficient conditions of extinction and persistence of the disease are established. We…
We study Langevin dynamics with stochastic diffusivity arising from fluctuations of the surrounding medium. The diffusivity is modeled as Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by symmetric dichotomous noise, which confines it to a finite…
The spread of an epidemic process is considered in the context of a spatial SIR stochastic model that includes a parameter $0\le p\le 1$ that assigns weights $p$ and $1- p$ to global and local infective contacts respectively. The model was…
Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with…
The stochastic SIRS model is a continuous-time Markov chain modelling the spread of infectious diseases with temporary immunity, in a homogeneously-mixing population of fixed size $N$. We study the scaling behaviour of the extinction time…
We study the SIR model of epidemics on positively correlated heterogeneous networks with population variability, and explore the dependence of the final outbreak size on the network heterogeneity strength and basic reproduction number $R_0$…
In genetic circuits, when the mRNA lifetime is short compared to the cell cycle, proteins are produced in geometrically-distributed bursts, which greatly affects the cellular switching dynamics between different metastable phenotypic…
The aim of this paper is to study the stochastic SIR equation with general incidence functional responses and in which both natural death rates and the incidence rate are perturbed by white noises. We derive a sufficient and almost…
Since 1927, until recently, models describing the spread of disease have mostly been of the SIR-compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. The focus of these models have typically been on…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
In most models of the spread of disease over contact networks it is assumed that the probabilities per unit time of disease transmission and recovery from disease are constant, implying exponential distributions of the time intervals for…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…
In stochastic modeling of infectious diseases, it has been established that variations in infectivity affect the probability of a major outbreak, but not the shape of the curves during a major outbreak, which is predicted by deterministic…
We consider an ensemble of coupled nonlinear noisy oscillators demonstrating in the thermodynamic limit an Ising-type transition. In the ordered phase and for finite ensembles stochastic flips of the mean field are observed with the rate…