Related papers: Outbreak-size distributions under fluctuating rate…
We consider compartmental models of communicable disease with uncertain contact rates. Stochastic fluctuations are often added to the contact rate to account for uncertainties. White noise, which is the typical choice for the fluctuations,…
We investigate predictions of stochastic compartmental models on the severity of disease outbreaks. The models we consider are the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) for bacterial infections, and the Susceptible -Infected-Removed (SIR)…
The effect of stochasticity, in the form of Gaussian white noise, in a predator-prey model with two distinct time-scales is presented. A supercritical singular Hopf bifurcation yields a Type II excitability in the deterministic model. We…
Branching processes are widely used to model evolutionary and population dynamics as well as the spread of infectious diseases. To characterize the dynamics of their growth or spread, the basic reproduction number $R_0$ has received…
The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…
In this paper we analyze and classify the dynamics of SIQRS epidemiological models with susceptible, infected, quarantined, and recovered classes, where the recovered individuals can become reinfected. We are able to treat general incidence…
We develop a framework for non-Markovian, well-mixed SIR and SIS models beyond mean field, utilizing the continuous-time random walk formalism. Using a gamma distribution for the infection and recovery inter-event times as a test case, we…
A class of stochastic vector-borne infectious disease models is derived and studied. The class type is determined by a general nonlinear incidence rate of the disease. The disease spreads in a highly random environment with variability from…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the…
We calculate both the exponential and pre-factor contributions in a WKB approximation of the master equation for a stochastic SIR model with highly oscillatory dynamics. Fixing the basic parameters of the model we investigate how the…
In this study we investigate a novel approach to stochastically perturb the disease transmission coefficient, which is a key parameter in susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) models. Motivated by the papers [2] and [5], we perturb the…
Our study is based on an epidemiological compartmental model, the SIRS model. In the SIRS model, each individual is in one of the states susceptible (S), infected(I) or recovered (R), depending on its state of health. In compartment R, an…
We first propose a quantitative approach to detect high risk outbreaks of independent and coinfective SIR dynamics on three empirical networks: a school, a conference and a hospital contact network. This measurement is based on the k-means…
Power-law scalings are ubiquitous to physical phenomena undergoing a continuous phase transition. The classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemics is one such example where the scaling behavior near a critical point has…
Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical…
The effects of demographic stochasticity in the long term behaviour of endemic infectious diseases have been considered for long as a necessary addition to an underlying deterministic theory. The latter would explain the regular behaviour…
We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…
Compartmental models are an important quantitative tool in epidemiology, enabling us to forecast the course of a communicable disease. However, the model parameters, such as the infectivity rate of the disease, are riddled with…
We exhibit a scaling law for the critical SIS stochastic epidemic: If at time 0 the population consists of square root N infected and N - square root N susceptible individuals, then when time and number currently infected are both scaled by…