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We introduce Robust Bayesian Sequential Borrowing (RBSB), a framework for extrapolating evidence across adjacent subgroups in multi-population clinical programmes where studies are conducted in sequence and populations are ordered by…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-27 Erik Hermansson , Lynn Dunsire , David Svensson , Thomas Jaki

We combine two important ideas in the analysis of large-scale genomics experiments (e.g. experiments that aim to identify genes that are differentially expressed between two conditions). The first is use of Empirical Bayes (EB) methods to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-02 David Gerard , Matthew Stephens

We consider the problem of model choice for stochastic epidemic models given partial observation of a disease outbreak through time. Our main focus is on the use of Bayes factors. Although Bayes factors have appeared in the epidemic…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-16 Muteb Alharthi , Theodore Kypraios , Philip D. O'Neill

Accurate epidemic forecasting requires models that account for the layered and heterogeneous nature of real social interactions. The basic reproduction number $\mathcal R_0$ calculated from models that assume homogeneous mixing or…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-10-15 Eric Alejandro Rozan , Mario Ignacio Simoy , Sebastian Bouzat , Marcelo Nestor Kuperman

We develop a novel Bayesian framework for dynamic modeling of mixed frequency data to nowcast quarterly U.S. GDP growth. The introduced framework utilizes foundational Bayesian theory and treats data sampled at different frequencies as…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-11 Kenichiro McAlinn

Optimal sex allocation theory is one of the most intricately developed areas of evolutionary ecology. Under a range of conditions, particularly under population sub-division, selection favours sex being allocated to offspring non-randomly,…

Applications · Statistics 2016-08-11 Richard D. Wilkinson , Apostolos Kapranas , Ian C. W. Hardy

Prior work has shown that combining bootstrap imputation with tree-based machine learning variable selection methods can provide good performances achievable on fully observed data when covariate and outcome data are missing at random…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-14 Jung-Yi Joyce Lin , Liangyuan Hu , Chuyue Huang , Steven Lawrence , Usha Govindarajulu

Accurate and reliable forecasting of epidemic incidences is critical for public health preparedness, yet it remains a challenging task due to complex nonlinear temporal dependencies and heterogeneous spatial interactions. Often, point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-10 Rajdeep Pathak , Tanujit Chakraborty

The Time Since Infection (TSI) models, which use disease surveillance data to model infectious diseases, have become increasingly popular due to their flexibility and capacity to address complex disease control questions. However, a notable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-10 Jiasheng Shi , Yizhao Zhou , Jing Huang

Missing data is a common concern in health datasets, and its impact on good decision-making processes is well documented. Our study's contribution is a methodology for tackling missing data problems using a combination of synthetic dataset…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-08 Gift Khangamwa , Terence L. van Zyl , Clint J. van Alten

We propose a framework for Bayesian non-parametric estimation of the rate at which new infections occur assuming that the epidemic is partially observed. The developed methodology relies on modelling the rate at which new infections occur…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-16 Edward S. Knock , Theodore Kypraios

Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) technologies have enabled the profiling of gene expression for a collection of cells across time during a dynamic biological process. Given that each time point provides only a static snapshot,…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-16 Binghao Yan , Hongzhe Li

A pervasive challenge in neuroscience is testing whether neuronal connectivity changes over time due to specific causes, such as stimuli, events, or clinical interventions. Recent hardware innovations and falling data storage costs enable…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-01-05 Johan Medrano , Karl J. Friston , Peter Zeidman

Multivariate categorical data occur in many applications of machine learning. One of the main difficulties with these vectors of categorical variables is sparsity. The number of possible observations grows exponentially with vector length,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-10 Yarin Gal , Yutian Chen , Zoubin Ghahramani

Number sense is a core cognitive ability supporting various adaptive behaviors and is foundational for mathematical learning. Here, we study its emergence in unsupervised generative models through the lens of rate-distortion theory (RDT), a…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-12-23 Leo D'Amato , Davide Nuzzi , Alberto Testolin , Ivilin Peev Stoianov , Marco Zorzi , Giovanni Pezzulo

By linking conceptual theories with observed data, generative models can support reasoning in complex situations. They have come to play a central role both within and beyond statistics, providing the basis for power analysis in molecular…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-15 Kris Sankaran , Susan P. Holmes

The discovery of disease subtypes is an essential step for developing precision medicine, and disease subtyping via omics data has become a popular approach. While promising, subtypes obtained from conventional approaches may not be…

Applications · Statistics 2023-09-28 Lingsong Meng , Zhiguang Huo

Bayesian inference methods are useful in infectious diseases modeling due to their capability to propagate uncertainty, manage sparse data, incorporate latent structures, and address high-dimensional parameter spaces. However, parameter…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Xiahui Li , Fergus Chadwick , Ben Swallow

We consider the situation where a temporal process is composed of contiguous segments with differing slopes and replicated noise-corrupted time series measurements are observed. The unknown mean of the data generating process is modelled as…

We propose a multivariate GARCH model for non-stationary health time series by modifying the variance of the observations of the standard state space model. The proposed model provides an intuitive way of dealing with heteroskedastic data…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-16 Zayd Omar , David A. Stephens , Alexandra M. Schmidt , David L. Buckeridge