English
Related papers

Related papers: Generative Bayesian modeling to nowcast the effect…

200 papers

Generative models can produce synthetic patient records for analytical tasks when real data is unavailable or limited. However, current methods struggle with adhering to domain-specific knowledge and removing invalid data. We present…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-22 Brandon Theodorou , Shrusti Jain , Cao Xiao , Jimeng Sun

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-05 Henrik Häggström , Sebastian Persson , Marija Cvijovic , Umberto Picchini

In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-14 Tom Britton , Federica Giardina

To study how a zygote develops into an embryo with different tissues, large-scale 4D confocal movies of C. elegans embryos have been produced recently by experimental biologists. However, the lack of principled statistical methods for the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-17 Jie Hu , Zhongying Zhao , Hari Krishna Yalamanchili , Junwen Wang , Kenny Ye , Xiaodan Fan

We propose a novel generative model for time series based on Schr{\"o}dinger bridge (SB) approach. This consists in the entropic interpolation via optimal transport between a reference probability measure on path space and a target measure…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-12 Mohamed Hamdouche , Pierre Henry-Labordere , Huyên Pham

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an effective tool for tracking community circulation of respiratory viruses. We address estimating the effective reproduction number ($R_t$) and the relative number of infections from wastewater viral…

We demonstrate a simple strategy to cope with missing data in sequential inputs, addressing the task of multilabel classification of diagnoses given clinical time series. Collected from the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) at Children's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-14 Zachary C. Lipton , David C. Kale , Randall Wetzel

The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-09 Luis E C Rocha , Naoki Masuda

Generating synthetic datasets that accurately reflect real-world observational data is critical for evaluating causal estimators, but it remains a challenging task. Existing generative methods offer a solution by producing synthetic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Pracheta Amaranath , Vinitra Muralikrishnan , Amit Sharma , David Jensen

Since the last century, deterministic compartmental models have emerged as powerful tools to predict and control epidemic outbreaks, in many cases helping to mitigate their impacts. A key quantity for these models is the so-called Basic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-11-03 Àlex Giménez-Romero , Rosa Flaquer-Galmés , Manuel A. Matias

Bayesian graphical modeling provides an appealing way to obtain uncertainty estimates when inferring network structures, and much recent progress has been made for Gaussian models. These models have been used extensively in applications to…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-06 Michael Finegold , Mathias Drton

In this work, a novel approach for the construction and training of time series models is presented that deals with the problem of learning on large time series with non-equispaced observations, which at the same time may possess features…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Charilaos Mylonas , Eleni Chatzi

During infectious disease outbreaks, estimates of time-varying pathogen transmissibility, such as the instantaneous reproduction number R(t) or epidemic growth rate r(t), are used to inform decision-making by public health authorities. For…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-09-30 Cathal Mills , Tarek Alrefae , William S. Hart , Moritz U. G. Kraemer , Kris V. Parag , Robin N. Thompson , Christl A. Donnelly , Ben Lambert

Generative modeling of time series is a central challenge in time series analysis, particularly under data-scarce conditions. Despite recent advances in generative modeling, a comprehensive understanding of how state-of-the-art generative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Tal Gonen , Itai Pemper , Ilan Naiman , Nimrod Berman , Omri Azencot

Recently-developed genotype imputation methods are a powerful tool for detecting untyped genetic variants that affect disease susceptibility in genetic association studies. However, existing imputation methods require individual-level…

Applications · Statistics 2010-11-15 Xiaoquan Wen , Matthew Stephens

First Few X (FFX) studies collect household-stratified data in the early stages of a pandemic, in order to infer severity and transmissibility of an emerging disease. We present a Bayesian method to approximately infer population-level…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-11-22 P. G. Ballard , A. J. Black , J. V. Ross

In this study, a new and natural way of constructing a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is proposed. This approach is natural in the sense that the disease transmission rate, $\beta$, is substituted with a generic,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-07 Berk Tan Perçin

A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-23 Christopher Jackson , Belen Zapata-Diomedi , James Woodcock

The family of cure models provides a unique opportunity to simultaneously model both the proportion of cured subjects (those not facing the event of interest) and the distribution function of time-to-event for susceptibles (those facing the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-11 Panagiotis Papastamoulis , Fotios Milienos

The effective reproduction number is a key figure to monitor the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study we consider a retrospective modelling approach for estimating the effective reproduction number based on death counts during the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-07 Tobias Wistuba , Andreas Mayr , Christian Staerk