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Modeling complex dynamical systems under varying conditions is computationally intensive, often rendering high-fidelity simulations intractable. Although reduced-order models (ROMs) offer a promising solution, current methods often struggle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-16 Andrew F. Ilersich , Kevin Course , Prasanth B. Nair

In complex physical systems, conventional differential equations often fall short in capturing non-local and memory effects, as they are limited to local dynamics and integer-order interactions. This study introduces a stepwise data-driven…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-05-30 Xiangnan Yu , Hao Xu , Zhiping Mao , HongGuang Sun , Yong Zhang , Dongxiao Zhang , Yuntian Chen

This paper proposes a dynamical Variable-separation method for solving parameter-dependent dynamical systems. To achieve this, we establish a dynamical low-rank approximation for the solutions of these dynamical systems by successively…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-13 Liang Chen , Yaru Chen , Qiuqi Li , Tao Zhou

Mechanical systems exhibit complex dynamical behavior from harmonic oscillations to chaotic motion. The dynamics undergo qualitative changes due to changes to internal system parameters like stiffness and changes to external forcing.…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-12-06 Manish Yadav , Swati Chauhan , Manish Dev Shrimali , Merten Stender

This paper considers a structural-factor approach to modeling high-dimensional time series and space-time data by decomposing individual series into trend, seasonal, and irregular components. For ease in analyzing many time series, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-19 Zhaoxing Gao , Ruey S Tsay

We propose a reconstruction of the initial system of ordinary differential equations from a single observed variable. The suggested approach is applied to a certain class of systems which includes, in particular, the Rossler system and…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2013-02-12 V. Gorodetskyi , M. Osadchuk

In this paper, we propose a model order reduction based adaptive parareal method for time-dependent partial differential equations. By using the data obtained by the fine propagator in each iteration of the plain parareal method together…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-19 Xiaoying Dai , Miao Hu , Shuwei Shen

Constrained radial basis function (RBF) regression has recently emerged as a powerful meshless tool for reconstructing continuous velocity fields from scattered flow measurements, particularly in image-based velocimetry. However, existing…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-03-27 Damien Rigutto , Manuel Ratz , Miguel A. Mendez

We propose a new method for determining the stochastic or ordered nature of trajectories in non-integrable Hamiltonian dynamical systems. The method consists of constructing a time-series from the divergence of nearby trajectories and then…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Ch. L. Vozikis , H. Varvoglis , K. Tsiganis

The reconstruction and inference of stochastic dynamical systems from data is a fundamental task in inverse problems and statistical learning. While surrogate modeling advances computational methods to approximate these dynamics, standard…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Nicole Tianjiao Yang

Causal inference on time series data is a challenging problem, especially in the presence of unobserved confounders. This work focuses on estimating the causal effect between two time series that are confounded by a third, unobserved time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-19 Felix Schur , Jonas Peters

We describe a method to construct directed networks from multivariate time series which has several advantages over the widely accepted methods. This method is based on an information theoretic reduction of linear (auto-regressive) models.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-08-13 Toshihiro Tanizawa , Tomomichi Nakamura , Fumihiko Taya , Michael Small

In this study, we address causal inference when only observational data and a valid causal ordering from the causal graph are available. We introduce a set of flow models that can recover component-wise, invertible transformation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Minh Khoa Le , Kien Do , Truyen Tran

This study investigates the use of fractional order differential models to simulate the dynamic response of non-homogeneous discrete systems and to achieve efficient and accurate model order reduction. The traditional integer order approach…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-12-22 John P. Hollkamp , Mihir Sen , Fabio Semperlotti

This work introduces a novel, simple, and flexible method to quantify irreversibility in generic high-dimensional time series based on the well-known mapping to a binary classification problem. Our approach utilizes gradient boosting for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-01-09 Michele Vodret , Cristiano Pacini , Christian Bongiorno

We focus on variational inference in dynamical systems where the discrete time transition function (or evolution rule) is modelled by a Gaussian process. The dominant approach so far has been to use a factorised posterior distribution,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-17 Alessandro Davide Ialongo , Mark van der Wilk , James Hensman , Carl Edward Rasmussen

High-dimensional financial time series often exhibit complex dependence relations driven by both common market structures and latent connections among assets. To capture these characteristics, this paper proposes Factor-Driven Network…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-27 Brendan Martin , Mihai Cucuringu , Alessandra Luati , Francesco Sanna Passino

We study the modeling and prediction of dynamical systems based on conventional models derived from measurements. Such algorithms are highly desirable in situations where the underlying dynamics are hard to model from physical principles or…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-08-03 Markus Quade , Markus Abel , Kamran Shafi , Robert K. Niven , Bernd R. Noack

Ordinary differential equation models are used to describe dynamic processes across biology. To perform likelihood-based parameter inference on these models, it is necessary to specify a statistical process representing the contribution of…

The problem of dynamic estimation of all parameters of a model representing chaotic and hyperchaotic systems using information from a scalar measured output is solved. The variational calculus based method is robust in the presence of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-06-26 Rahul Konnur