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We propose a non-parametric statistical procedure for detecting multiple change-points in multidimensional signals. The method is based on a test statistic that generalizes the well-known Kruskal-Wallis procedure to the multivariate…
We show that the mixed causal-noncausal Vector Autoregressive (VAR) processes satisfy the Markov property in both calendar and reverse time. Based on that property, we introduce closed-form formulas of forward and backward predictive…
The quantile-crossing spectrum is the spectrum of quantile-crossing processes created from a time series by the indicator function that shows whether or not the time series lies above or below a given quantile at a given time. This…
We study a classical reparametrization-invariant system, in which ``time'' is not a priori defined. It consists of a nonrelativistic particle moving in five dimensions, two of which are compactified to form a torus. There, assuming a…
Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is essential for various downstream tasks. Most existing approaches rely on the sequences being uniformly spaced and aligned across all variables. However, real-world multivariate time…
Allan variance (AVAR) was first introduced more than 40 years ago as a estimator of the stability of frequency standards, and now it is actively used for investigations of time series in astronomy, geodesy and geodynamics. This method…
Aperiodic variability is a characteristic feature of young stars, massive stars, and active galactic nuclei. With the recent proliferation of time domain surveys, it is increasingly essential to develop methods to quantify and analyze…
Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…
We present a re-parameterization of vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models that allows estimation of parameters under the constraints of causality and invertibility. The parameter constraints associated with a causal invertible…
This paper considers an augmented double autoregressive (DAR) model, which allows null volatility coefficients to circumvent the over-parameterization problem in the DAR model. Since the volatility coefficients might be on the boundary, the…
We consider the change-point detection in multivariate continuous and integer valued time series. We propose a Wald-type statistic based on the estimator performed by a general contrast function; which can be constructed from the…
We propose a novel approach to estimate the Cox model with temporal covariates. Our new approach treats the temporal covariates as arising from a longitudinal process which is modeled jointly with the event time. Different from the…
In this paper we propose a new time-varying econometric model, called Time-Varying Poisson AutoRegressive with eXogenous covariates (TV-PARX), suited to model and forecast time series of counts. {We show that the score-driven framework is…
For factor model, the involved covariance matrix often has no row sparse structure because the common factors may lead some variables to strongly associate with many others. Under the ultra-high dimensional paradigm, this feature causes…
In comparative studies, such as in causal inference and clinical trials, balancing important covariates is often one of the most important concerns for both efficient and credible comparison. However, chance imbalance still exists in many…
Time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility are routinely used for structural analysis and forecasting in settings involving a few endogenous variables. Applying these models to high-dimensional datasets has proved to be…
We present a new technique, based on semivariogram methodology, for obtaining point estimates for use in prior modeling for solving Bayesian inverse problems. This method requires a connection between Gaussian processes with covariance…
Inverse problems aim to determine model parameters of a mathematical problem from given observational data. Neural networks can provide an efficient tool to solve these problems. In the context of Bayesian inverse problems, Uncertainty…
Motivated by Tucker tensor decomposition, this paper imposes low-rank structures to the column and row spaces of coefficient matrices in a multivariate infinite-order vector autoregression (VAR), which leads to a supervised factor model…
We consider the problem of fitting a parametric model to time-series data that are afflicted by correlated noise. The noise is represented by a sum of two stationary Gaussian processes: one that is uncorrelated in time, and another that has…