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We characterize conditions under which collections of distributions on $\{0,1\}^\mathbb{N}$ admit uniform estimation of their mean. Prior work from Vapnik and Chervonenkis (1971) has focused on uniform convergence using the empirical mean…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-19 Tanmay Devale , Pramith Devulapalli , Steve Hanneke

Following Hales (2018), the evolution of P\'olya's urn may be interpreted as a walk, a P\'olya walk, on the integer lattice $\mathbb{N}^2$. We study the visibility properties of P\'olya's walk or, equivalently, the divisibility properties…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-09 José L. Fernández , Pablo Fernández

The hypothesis of randomness is fundamental in statistical machine learning and in many areas of nonparametric statistics; it says that the observations are assumed to be independent and coming from the same unknown probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-08 Vladimir Vovk

In this paper, a first sample-based formulation of the recently considered population observers, or ensemble observers, which estimate the state distribution of dynamic populations from measurements of the output distribution is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-12-01 Shen Zeng

Dependent nonparametric processes extend distributions over measures, such as the Dirichlet process and the beta process, to give distributions over collections of measures, typically indexed by values in some covariate space. Such models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-11-21 Nicholas J. Foti , Sinead Williamson

In this paper, we characterize compatibility of distributions and probability measures on a measurable space. For a set of indices $\mathcal J$, we say that the tuples of probability measures $(Q_i)_{i\in \mathcal J} $ and distributions…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-16 Jie Shen , Yi Shen , Bin Wang , Ruodu Wang

Intelligent agents must be able to articulate its own uncertainty. In this work, we show that pre-trained sequence models are naturally capable of probabilistic reasoning over exchangeable data points -- forming informed beliefs and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-02 Naimeng Ye , Hongseok Namkoong

Many popular Bayesian nonparametric priors can be characterized in terms of exchangeable species sampling sequences. However, in some applications, exchangeability may not be appropriate. We introduce a {novel and probabilistically coherent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Edoardo M. Airoldi , Thiago Costa , Federico Bassetti , Fabrizio Leisen , Michele Guindani

Markov chains and Markov decision processes (MDPs) are well-established probabilistic models. While finite Markov models are well-understood, analysing their infinite counterparts remains a significant challenge. Decisiveness has proven to…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Nathalie Bertrand , Patricia Bouyer , Thomas Brihaye , Paulin Fournier , Pierre Vandenhove

Measurement models (MMs) stand at the highest structural level of quantum measurement theory. MMs can be employed to construct instruments which stand at the next level. An instrument is thought of as an apparatus that is used to measure…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-08-22 Stan Gudder

Gaussian processes are rich distributions over functions, with generalization properties determined by a kernel function. When used for long-range extrapolation, predictions are particularly sensitive to the choice of kernel parameters. It…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-05 Phillip A. Jang , Andrew E. Loeb , Matthew B. Davidow , Andrew Gordon Wilson

This paper presents a tractable sufficient condition for the consistency of maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) in partially observed diffusion models, stated in terms of stationary distribution of the associated fully observed diffusion,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-10 Sergey Nadtochiy , Yuan Yin

We characterize the class of exchangeable feature allocations assigning probability $V_{n,k}\prod_{l=1}^{k}W_{m_{l}}U_{n-m_{l}}$ to a feature allocation of $n$ individuals, displaying $k$ features with counts $(m_{1},\ldots,m_{k})$ for…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-08 Marco Battiston , Stefano Favaro , Daniel M. Roy , Yee Whye Teh

This work focuses on Exchangeable Occupancy Models (EOM) and their relations with the Uniform Order Statistics Property (UOSP) for point processes in discrete time. As our main purpose, we show how definitions and results presented in…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-08 Francesca Collet , Fabrizio Leisen , Fabio Spizzichino , Florentina Suter

In the 1920's, the English philosopher W.E. Johnson introduced a characterization of the symmetric Dirichlet prior distribution in terms of its predictive distribution. This is typically referred to as Johnson's "sufficientness" postulate,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-05 Federico Camerlenghi , Stefano Favaro

Suppose we are given the conditional probability of one variable given some other variables.Normally the full joint distribution over the conditioning variablesis required to determine the probability of the conditioned variable.Under what…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Avi Pfeffer

Let A be a standard Borel space, and consider the space A^{\bbN^{(k)}} of A-valued arrays indexed by all size-k subsets of \bbN. This paper concerns random measures on such a space whose laws are invariant under the natural action of…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-09 Tim Austin

We develop a qualitative theory of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and Partially Observable MDPs that can be used to model sequential decision making tasks when only qualitative information is available. Our approach is based upon an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Blai Bonet , Judea Pearl

Some practical results are derived for population inference based on a sample, under the two qualitative conditions of 'ignorability' and exchangeability. These are the 'Histogram Theorem', for predicting the outcome of a non-sampled member…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-12 Jonathan Rougier

We consider ontological models of a quantum system, assuming that not all probability distributions over the space $\Lambda$ of ontic states are preparable, only those belonging to a certain set C. We assume further that every POVM with a…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-05-10 Roderich Tumulka