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We prove the first margin-based generalization bound for voting classifiers, that is asymptotically tight in the tradeoff between the size of the hypothesis set, the margin, the fraction of training points with the given margin, the number…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-26 Kasper Green Larsen , Natascha Schalburg

In this paper, we develop a general theory on the coverage probability of random intervals defined in terms of discrete random variables with continuous parameter spaces. The theory shows that the minimum coverage probabilities of random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-04-12 Xinjia Chen

One aspect of Poisson approximation is that the support of the random variable of interest is often finite while the support of the Poisson distribution is not. In this paper we will remedy this by examining truncated negative binomial (of…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-02 H. L. Gan

We revisit random search for stochastic optimization, where only noisy function evaluations are available. We show that the method works under weaker smoothness assumptions than previously considered, and that stronger assumptions enable…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-19 El Mahdi Chayti , Taha El Bakkali El Kadi , Omar Saadi , Martin Jaggi

In this paper, we develop a general theory of truncated inverse binomial sampling. In this theory, the fixed-size sampling and inverse binomial sampling are accommodated as special cases. In particular, the classical Chernoff-Hoeffding…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-20 Xinjia Chen

We give a simpler proof, via query elimination, of a result due to O'Donnell, Saks, Schramm and Servedio, which shows a lower bound on the zero-error randomized query complexity of a function f in terms of the maximum influence of any…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2011-02-24 Rahul Jain , Shengyu Zhang

Computing the probability of evidence even with known error bounds is NP-hard. In this paper we address this hard problem by settling on an easier problem. We propose an approximation which provides high confidence lower bounds on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-26 Vibhav Gogate , Bozhena Bidyuk , Rina Dechter

We consider importance sampling for estimating the probability that a light-tailed $d$-dimensional random walk exits through one of many disjoint rare-event regions before reaching an anticipated target. This problem arises in sequential…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-19 Yanglei Song , Georgios Fellouris

In this paper, we study a class of multiscale McKean-Vlasov stochastic systems where the entire system depends on the distribution of the fast component. First of all, by the Poisson equation method we prove that the slow component…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Jie Xiang , Huijie Qiao

During recent years the interest of optimization and machine learning communities in high-probability convergence of stochastic optimization methods has been growing. One of the main reasons for this is that high-probability complexity…

In this paper, we propose a novel robust stochastic optimization approach with a distinctive consideration for rare events, in which divergence measures are used to bound the event-wise ambiguity sets. This is done by using the Poisson…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-14 Aakil M. Caunhye , Douglas Alem

This work establishes a new upper bound on the number of samples sufficient for PAC learning in the realizable case. The bound matches known lower bounds up to numerical constant factors. This solves a long-standing open problem on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-13 Steve Hanneke

In this paper, we prove a local limit theorem for the ratio of the Poisson distribution to the Gaussian distribution with the same mean and variance, using only elementary methods (Taylor expansions and Stirling's formula). We then apply…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-25 Frédéric Ouimet

We investigate the properties of a sequential Monte Carlo method where the particle weight that appears in the algorithm is estimated by a positive, unbiased estimator. We present broadly-applicable convergence results, including a central…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-26 Paul B. Rohrbach , Robert L. Jack

In this paper, we introduce a convergence notion for ordered selections. Our convergence notion is based on subpermutation densities and convergences of the marginal distributions. A particular case of this convergence is the well-known…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-18 B. Fazekas , I. Fazekas

We derive upper bounds on the tail conditional expectation of binomial and Poisson random variables. Those upper bounds are subsequently employed to the problem of obtaining non-asymptotic lower bounds on the probability that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-07 Christos Pelekis

Leveraging algorithmic stability to derive sharp generalization bounds is a classic and powerful approach in learning theory. Since Vapnik and Chervonenkis [1974] first formalized the idea for analyzing SVMs, it has been utilized to study…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-26 Qinghua Liu , Zhou Lu

We propose a class of strongly efficient rare event simulation estimators for random walks and compound Poisson processes with a regularly varying increment/jump-size distribution in a general large deviations regime. Our estimator is based…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-14 Bohan Chen , Jose Blanchet , Chang-Han Rhee , Bert Zwart

This paper considers the finite element solution of the boundary value problem of Poisson's equation and proposes a guaranteed em a posteriori local error estimation based on the hypercircle method. Compared to the existing literature on…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-12-17 Taiga Nakano , Xuefeng Liu

We study the weakly asymmetric simple exclusion process in one dimension. We prove sample path moderate deviation principles for the current and the tagged particle when the process starts from one of its stationary measures. We simplify…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-05 Xiaofeng Xue , Linjie Zhao
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