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Extreme weather events during peak winter periods drive resource adequacy risk in Great Britain (GB), with weather sensitivity of the supply-demand balance increasing through additional electric heating and wind generation. This work…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-23 Aninda Bhattacharya , Chris J. Dent , Amy L. Wilson , Gabriele C. Hegerl

Renewable energy sources, especially wind energy, are to play a larger role in providing electricity to industrial and domestic consumers. This is already the case today for a number of European countries, closely followed by the US and…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-24 Pierre Pinson

Randomization-based Machine Learning methods for prediction are currently a hot topic in Artificial Intelligence, due to their excellent performance in many prediction problems, with a bounded computation time. The application of…

Climate policy modelling is a key tool for assessing mitigation strategies in complex systems, where uncertainty is inherent and unavoidable. We present a general methodology for extensive uncertainty analysis in this field. While other…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-15 Ian J. Burton , Femke J. M. M. Nijsse , James M. Salter

This paper presents a novel learning based framework for predicting power outages caused by extreme events. The proposed approach targets low-probability high-consequence outage scenarios and leverages a comprehensive set of features…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Nina Fatehi , Antar Kumar Biswas , Masoud H. Nazari

Understanding extreme events and their probability is key for the study of climate change impacts, risk assessment, adaptation, and the protection of living beings. Forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme heatwaves is a primary…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-02-21 George Miloshevich , Bastien Cozian , Patrice Abry , Pierre Borgnat , Freddy Bouchet

CO$_2$ emission reduction and increasing volatile renewable energy generation mandate stronger energy sector coupling and the use of energy storage. In such multi-modal energy systems, it is challenging to determine the effect of an…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-30 Christopher Ripp , Florian Steinke

The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-08-05 Michael Ghil , Valerio Lucarini

In the process of decarbonization, the global energy mix is shifting from fossil fuels to renewables. To study decarbonization pathways, large-scale energy system models are utilized. These models require accurate data on renewable…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-01-22 Alexander Kies , Bruno U. Schyska , Mariia Bilousova , Omar El Sayed , Jakub Jurasz , Horst Stöcker

Extreme events gain the attention of researchers due to their utmost importance in various contexts ranging from finance to climatology. This brings such recurrent events to the limelight of attention in interdisciplinary research. A…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-05-18 Sayantan Nag Chowdhury , Arnob Ray , Syamal K. Dana , Dibakar Ghosh

Generating representative scenarios for power system planning in which the stochasticity of renewable generation and cross-correlations between renewables and load are fully captured, is a challenging problem. Traditional methods for…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-09 Dhaval Dalal , Anamitra Pal , Philip Augustin

Supply and demand in future energy systems depend on the weather. We therefore need to quantify how climate change and variability impact energy systems. Here, we present Climate2Energy (C2E), a framework to consistently convert climate…

The Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problem is pivotal for power system operations, guiding generator output and power distribution to meet demand at minimized costs, while adhering to physical and engineering constraints. The integration of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Chen Li , Alexander Kies , Kai Zhou , Markus Schlott , Omar El Sayed , Mariia Bilousova , Horst Stoecker

To advance automated detection of extreme weather events, which are increasing in frequency and intensity with climate change, we explore modifications to a novel light-weight Context Guided convolutional neural network architecture trained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-04-04 Romain Lacombe , Hannah Grossman , Lucas Hendren , David Lüdeke

The objective of the GreenPAD project is to use green energy (wind, solar and biomass) for powering data-centers that are used to run HPC jobs. As a part of this it is important to predict the Renewable (Wind) energy for efficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-02-27 Ankur Sahai

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate new techniques for computing multiday extreme precipitation taken from recent theoretical advancements in extreme value theory in the framework of dynamical systems, using historical precipitation…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-03-18 Ruethaichanok Kardkasem , Meagan Carney

This paper presents a novel data-driven approach for predicting the number of vegetation-related outages that occur in power distribution systems on a monthly basis. In order to develop an approach that is able to successfully fulfill this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-07 Milad Doostan , Reza Sohrabi , Badrul Chowdhury

Renewable electricity generation has grown significantly across many European power systems, leading to a greener energy mix, but also additional complexity in balancing electricity supply and demand. Unexpected differences between…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-19 Arnaud Verstraeten , Maria Margarida Mascarenhas , Hussain Kazmi

This chapter addresses the increasing vulnerability of coastal regions to typhoons and the consequent power outages, emphasizing the critical role of power transmission systems in disaster resilience. It introduces a framework for assessing…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-13 Yang Li

One of the serious threats related to climate change is an increase in the number and severity of extreme weather events. A prominent example are hurricanes, which result from rising coastal temperatures. Such extreme weather events can…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-07-05 Julian M. Stürmer , Anton Plietzsch , Mehrnaz Anvari