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We consider the problem of detecting the presence of a signal in a rank-one spiked Wigner model. For general non-Gaussian noise, assuming that the signal is drawn from the Rademacher prior, we prove that the log likelihood ratio (LR) of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-19 Hye Won Chung , Jiho Lee , Ji Oon Lee

Given a random sample from a multivariate population, estimating the number of large eigenvalues of the population covariance matrix is an important problem in Statistics with wide applications in many areas. In the context of Principal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-10 Abhinav Chakraborty , Soumendu Sundar Mukherjee , Arijit Chakrabarti

We study the fundamental limits of detecting the presence of an additive rank-one perturbation, or spike, to a Wigner matrix. When the spike comes from a prior that is i.i.d. across coordinates, we prove that the log-likelihood ratio of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-11 Ahmed El Alaoui , Florent Krzakala , Michael I. Jordan

Estimating the number of principal components is one of the fundamental problems in many scientific fields such as signal processing (or the spiked covariance model). In this paper, we first demonstrate that, for fixed $p$, any penalty term…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-01 Jianwei Hu , Jingfei Zhang , Ji Zhu

Model selection is a ubiquitous problem that arises in the application of many statistical and machine learning methods. In the likelihood and related settings, it is typical to use the method of information criteria (IC) to choose the most…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-13 Hien Duy Nguyen

We study Bayesian inference in the spiked covariance model, where a small number of spiked eigenvalues dominate the spectrum. Our goal is to infer the spiked eigenvalues, their corresponding eigenvectors, and the number of spikes, providing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-20 Kwangmin Lee , Sewon Park , Seongmin Kim , Jaeyong Lee

We present a model selection framework for the extraction of the CKM matrix element $|V_{cb}|$ from exclusive $B \to D^* l \nu$ decays. By framing the truncation of the Boyd-Grinstein-Lebed (BGL) parameterization as a model selection task,…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2024-12-11 Eric Persson , Florian Bernlochner

The Akaike information criterion (AIC) is a model selection criterion widely used in practical applications. The AIC is an estimator of the log-likelihood expected value, and measures the discrepancy between the true model and the estimated…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-03 Fábio M. Bayer , Francisco Cribari-Neto

Finite mixture models are ubiquitous in modern statistical modeling, and a recurring practical issue is choosing the model order. In \citet[Sankhy\=a Series A, \textbf62, pp. 49--66]{keribin2000consistent}, the Bayesian information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-03 Hien Duy Nguyen , TrungTin Nguyen

The paper obtains analytical results for the asymptotic properties of Model Selection Criteria -- widely used in practice -- for a general family of hidden Markov models (HMMs), thereby substantially extending the related theory beyond…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-04 Shouto Yonekura , Alexandros Beskos , Sumeetpal S. Singh

The statistical analysis of measurement data has become a key component of many quantum engineering experiments. As standard full state tomography becomes unfeasible for large dimensional quantum systems, one needs to exploit prior…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2012-11-27 Madalin Guta , Theodore Kypraios , Ian Dryden

Bayesian model averaging, model selection and its approximations such as BIC are generally statistically consistent, but sometimes achieve slower rates og convergence than other methods such as AIC and leave-one-out cross-validation. On the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-09-17 Tim van Erven , Peter Grunwald , Steven de Rooij

It has been shown that AIC-type criteria are asymptotically efficient selectors of the tuning parameter in non-concave penalized regression methods under the assumption that the population variance is known or that a consistent estimator is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-02 Cheryl J. Flynn , Clifford M. Hurvich , Jeffrey S. Simonoff

A maximum likelihood based model selection of discrete Bayesian networks is considered. The model selection is performed through scoring function $S$, which, for a given network $G$ and $n$-sample $D_n$, is defined to be the maximum…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-04-18 Nikolay H. Balov

AIC is commonly used for model selection but the precise value of AIC has no direct interpretation. We are interested in quantifying a difference of risks between two models. This may be useful for both an explanatory point of view or for…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-07-28 D. Commenges , A. Sayyareh , L. Letenneur , J. Guedj , A. Bar-Hen

We consider the weak detection problem in a rank-one spiked Wigner data matrix where the signal-to-noise ratio is small so that reliable detection is impossible. We propose a hypothesis test on the presence of the signal by utilizing the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-28 Hye Won Chung , Ji Oon Lee

The Akaike information criterion (AIC) has been used as a statistical criterion to compare the appropriateness of different dark energy candidate models underlying a particular data set. Under suitable conditions, the AIC is an indirect…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-28 Ming Yang Jeremy Tan , Rahul Biswas

Information theoretic criteria (ITC) have been widely adopted in engineering and statistics for selecting, among an ordered set of candidate models, the one that better fits the observed sample data. The selected model minimizes a penalized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-10 Andrea Mariani , Andrea Giorgetti , Marco Chiani

Smoothed AIC (S-AIC) and Smoothed BIC (S-BIC) are very widely used in model averaging and are very easily to implement. Especially, the optimal model averaging method MMA and JMA have only been well developed in linear models. Only by…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-29 Miaomiao Wang , Xinyu Zhang , Alan T. K. Wan , Guohua Zou

In the information-based paradigm of inference, model selection is performed by selecting the candidate model with the best estimated predictive performance. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the estimate of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-11 Colin H. LaMont , Paul A. Wiggins
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