Related papers: Real-Time Detection of Local No-Arbitrage Violatio…
We are interested in the existence of equivalent martingale measures and the detection of arbitrage opportunities in markets where several multi-asset derivatives are traded simultaneously. More specifically, we consider a financial market…
A novel method for sequential outlier detection in non-stationary time series is proposed. The method tests the null hypothesis of ``no outlier'' at each time point, addressing the multiple testing problem by bounding the error probability…
In this article, we show necessary and sufficient conditions for a function to transform a continuous Markov semimartingale to a semimartingale. As a result, the no-arbitrage principle guarantees the differentiability of asset prices with…
Based on It\^o semimartingale models, several studies have proposed methods for forecasting intraday volatility using high-frequency financial data. These approaches typically rely on restrictive parametric assumptions and are often…
Given a stock price process, we analyse the potential of arbitrage by insiders in a context of short-selling prohibitions. We introduce the notion of minimal supermartingale measure, and we analyse its properties in connection to the…
In this paper, a general framework is developed for continuous-time financial market models defined from simple strategies through conditional topologies that avoid stochastic calculus and do not necessitate semimartingale models. We then…
We develop a nonparametric test for deciding whether volatility of an asset follows a standard semimartingale process, with paths of finite quadratic variation, or a rough process with paths of infinite quadratic variation. The test…
The present paper deals with the characterization of no-arbitrage properties of a continuous semimartingale. The first main result, Theorem \refMainTheoremCharNA, extends the no-arbitrage criterion by Levental and Skorohod [Ann. Appl.…
In this paper we employ deep learning techniques to detect financial asset bubbles by using observed call option prices. The proposed algorithm is widely applicable and model-independent. We test the accuracy of our methodology in numerical…
The paper develops no arbitrage results for trajectory based models by imposing general constraints on the trading portfolios. The main condition imposed, in order to avoid arbitrage opportunities, is a local continuity requirement on the…
Large-scale neutrino observatories operate under unavoidable detector deadtime arising from photomultiplier saturation, digitizer limits, and front-end readout constraints. Conventional coincidence-based trigger logic implicitly assumes…
The optimal rate of convergence of estimators of the integrated volatility, for a discontinuous It\^{o} semimartingale sampled at regularly spaced times and over a fixed time interval, has been a long-standing problem, at least when the…
Training deep learning neural networks often requires massive amounts of computational ressources. We propose to sequentially monitor network predictions to trigger retraining only if the predictions are no longer valid. This can reduce…
We investigate the almost sure asymptotic properties of vector martingale transforms. Assuming some appropriate regularity conditions both on the increasing process and on the moments of the martingale, we prove that normalized moments of…
This paper proposes a novel test for simultaneous jumps in a bivariate It\^o semimartingale when observation times are asynchronous and irregular. Inference is built on a realized correlation coefficient for the jumps of the two processes…
This paper derives the rate of convergence and asymptotic distribution for a class of Kolmogorov-Smirnov style test statistics for conditional moment inequality models for parameters on the boundary of the identified set under general…
We derive limit theorems for the empirical distribution function of "devolatilized" increments of an It\^{o} semimartingale observed at high frequencies. These "devolatilized" increments are formed by suitably rescaling and truncating the…
We describe a Matlab routine that allows us to estimate the jumps in financial asset prices using the Threshold (or Truncation) method of Mancini (2009). The routine is designed for application to five-minute log-returns. The underlying…
Consider the problem on sequential change-point detection on multiple data streams. We provide the asymptotic lower bounds of the detection delays at all levels of change-point sparsity and we derive a smaller asymptotic lower bound of the…
Sequential change detection is a classical problem with a variety of applications. However, the majority of prior work has been parametric, for example, focusing on exponential families. We develop a fundamentally new and general framework…