Related papers: Real-Time Detection of Local No-Arbitrage Violatio…
This work develops change-point methods for statistics of high-frequency data. The main interest is in the volatility of an It\^{o} semi-martingale, the latter being discretely observed over a fixed time horizon. We construct a…
We give an infinitesimal meaning to the symbol $dX_t$ for a continuous semimartingale $X$ at an instant in time $t$. We define a vector space structure on the space of differentials at time $t$ and deduce key properties consistent with the…
In this paper, we provide non-parametric statistical tools to test stationarity of microstructure noise in general hidden Ito semimartingales, and discuss how to measure liquidity risk using high frequency financial data. In particular, we…
The goal of this paper is to prove a result conjectured in F\"ollmer and Schachermayer [FS07], even in slightly more general form. Suppose that S is a continuous semimartingale and satisfies a large deviations estimate; this is a particular…
Sequential tests and their implied confidence sequences, which are valid at arbitrary stopping times, promise flexible statistical inference and on-the-fly decision making. However, strong guarantees are limited to parametric sequential…
In this paper we examine the asymptotic theory for U-statistics and V-statistics of discontinuous Ito semimartingales that are observed at high frequency. For different types of kernel functions we show laws of large numbers and associated…
We present an algorithm which attains O(\sqrt{T}) internal (and thus external) regret for finite games with partial monitoring under the local observability condition. Recently, this condition has been shown by (Bartok, Pal, and Szepesvari,…
This work considers the problem of detecting signals from multiple sequentially observed data streams, where only one stream can be observed at every time instant. The goal is to detect signals as quickly as possible while controlling the…
This paper presents the nonparametric inference for nonlinear volatility functionals of general multivariate It\^o semimartingales, in high-frequency and noisy setting. Pre-averaging and truncation enable simultaneous handling of noise and…
This paper derives the asymptotic behavior of realized power variation of pure-jump It\^{o} semimartingales as the sampling frequency within a fixed interval increases to infinity. We prove convergence in probability and an associated…
Statistical inference for stochastic processes based on high-frequency observations has been an active research area for more than two decades. One of the most well-known and widely studied problems has been the estimation of the quadratic…
This work is concerned with tests on structural breaks in the spot volatility process of a general It\^o semimartingale based on discrete observations contaminated with i.i.d. microstructure noise. We construct a consistent test building up…
We construct a statistical indicator for the detection of short-term asset price bubbles based on the information content of bid and ask market quotes for plain vanilla put and call options. Our construction makes use of the martingale…
The aim of sequential change-point detection is to issue an alarm when it is thought that certain probabilistic properties of the monitored observations have changed. This work is concerned with nonparametric, closed-end testing procedures…
We consider the problem of tracking a target whose dynamics is modeled by a continuous It\=o semi-martingale. The aim is to minimize both deviation from the target and tracking efforts. We establish the existence of asymptotic lower bounds…
This paper addresses the question of how an arbitrage-free semimartingale model is affected when stopped at a random horizon. We focus on No-Unbounded-Profit-with-Bounded-Risk (called NUPBR hereafter) concept, which is also known in the…
This paper completes the two studies undertaken in \cite{aksamit/choulli/deng/jeanblanc2} and \cite{aksamit/choulli/deng/jeanblanc3}, where the authors quantify the impact of a random time on the No-Unbounded-Risk-with-Bounded-Profit…
We present a theoretical framework for M-FISHER, a method for sequential distribution shift detection and stable adaptation in streaming data. For detection, we construct an exponential martingale from non-conformity scores and apply…
In this paper, we introduce a novel method for predicting intraday instantaneous volatility based on Ito semimartingale models using high-frequency financial data. Several studies have highlighted stylized volatility time series features,…
We consider a process $X_t$, which is observed on a finite time interval $[0,T]$, at discrete times $0,\Delta_n,2\Delta_n,\ldots.$ This process is an It\^{o} semimartingale with stochastic volatility $\sigma_t^2$. Assuming that $X$ has…