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The drift burst hypothesis postulates the existence of short-lived locally explosive trends in the price paths of financial assets. The recent U.S. equity and treasury flash crashes can be viewed as two high-profile manifestations of such…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-16 Kim Christensen , Roel C. A. Oomen , Roberto Renò

The chase procedure is a fundamental algorithmic tool in databases that allows us to reason with constraints, such as existential rules, with a plethora of applications. It takes as input a database and a set of constraints, and iteratively…

Databases · Computer Science 2023-03-24 Marco Calautti , Mostafa Milani , Andreas Pieris

We study the valuation of an American put option with a random time horizon given by the last exit time of the underlying asset from a fixed level. Since this random time is not a stopping time, the problem falls outside the classical…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-31 Zhuoshu Wu , Libo Li

This paper presents the asymptotic theory for nondegenerate $U$-statistics of high frequency observations of continuous It\^{o} semimartingales. We prove uniform convergence in probability and show a functional stable central limit theorem…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-10 Mark Podolskij , Christian Schmidt , Johanna F. Ziegel

We propose nonparametric estimators of the occupation measure and the occupation density of the diffusion coefficient (stochastic volatility) of a discretely observed It\^{o} semimartingale on a fixed interval when the mesh of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-30 Jia Li , Viktor Todorov , George Tauchen

This paper proposes and studies a detection technique for adversarial scenarios (dubbed deterministic detection). This technique provides an alternative detection methodology in case the usual stochastic methods are not applicable: this can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-08 Kristiaan Pelckmans

No-arbitrage asset pricing characterizes valuation through the existence of equivalent martingale measures relative to a filtration and a class of admissible trading strategies. In practice, pricing is performed across multiple asset…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-21 Alejandro Rodriguez Dominguez

We propose a new estimator for the integrated covariance of two Ito semimartingales observed at a high-frequency. This new estimator, which we call the pre-averaged truncated Hayashi-Yoshida estimator, enables us to separate the sum of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-07 Yuta Koike

We propose a nonparametric algorithm to detect structural breaks in the conditional mean and/or variance of a time series. Our method does not assume any specific parametric form for the dependence structure of the regressor, the time…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-22 Archi Roy , Moumanti Podder , Soudeep Deb

In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of sums of functions of the increments of a given semimartingale, taken along a regular grid whose mesh goes to 0. The function of the $i$th increment may depend on the current time, and also…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-14 Assane Diop

In an incomplete model, where under an appropriate num\'eraire, the stock price process is driven by a sigma-bounded semimartingale, we investigate the behavior of the expected utility maximization problem under small perturbations of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Oleksii Mostovyi

In this paper, we consider a framework adapting the notion of cointegration when two asset prices are generated by a driftless It\^{o}-semimartingale featuring jumps with infinite activity, observed regularly and synchronously at high…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-24 Simon Clinet , Yoann Potiron

We consider estimation of the quadratic (co)variation of a semimartingale from discrete observations which are irregularly spaced under high-frequency asymptotics. In the univariate setting, results by Jacod (2008) are generalized to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-15 Markus Bibinger , Mathias Vetter

In this paper, we show how to estimate the asymptotic (conditional) covariance matrix, which appears in central limit theorems in high-frequency estimation of asset return volatility. We provide a recipe for the estimation of this matrix by…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-26 Kim Christensen , Mark Podolskij , Nopporn Thamrongrat , Bezirgen Veliyev

We study maximum-likelihood-type estimation for diffusion processes when the coefficients are nonrandom and observation occurs in nonsynchronous manner. The problem of nonsynchronous observations is important when we consider the analysis…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-04 Teppei Ogihara

Sequential monitoring of randomized trials traditionally relies on parametric assumptions or asymptotic approximations. We discuss a family of nonparametric sequential tests - collectively called e-RT - for binary, event-only, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Fernando G Zampieri

In this paper we investigate the local risk-minimization approach for a semimartingale financial market where there are restrictions on the available information to agents who can observe at least the asset prices. We characterize the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-11-20 Claudia Ceci , Katia Colaneri , Alessandra Cretarola

We provide verification theorems (at different levels of generality) for infinite horizon stochastic control problems in continuous time for semimartingales. The control framework is given as an abstract "martingale formulation", which…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-01 Ma. Elena Hernández-Hernández , Saul Jacka , Aleksandar Mijatović

We consider discrete-time observations of a continuous martingale under measurement error. This serves as a fundamental model for high-frequency data in finance, where an efficient price process is observed under microstructure noise. It is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-12 Markus Reiß

A Milstein-type scheme was proposed to improve the rate of convergence of its approximation of the solution to a stochastic differential equation driven by a vector of continuous semimartingales. A necessary and sufficient condition was…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Liqing Yan
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