Related papers: Ebola transmission dynamics: will future Ebola out…
It is well established that people with diabetes are more likely to have serious complications from COVID-19. Nearly 1 in 5 COVID-19 deaths in the African region are linked to diabetes. World Health Organization (WHO) finds that 18.3% of…
A model for the transmission of dengue disease is presented. It consists of eight mutually-exclusive compartments representing the human and vector dynamics. It also includes a control parameter (adulticide spray) in order to combat the…
We propose and analyze an epidemiological model for vector borne diseases that integrates a multi-stage vector population and several host sub-populations which may be characterized by a variety of compartmental model types: subpopulations…
Motile organisms can form stable agglomerates such as cities or colonies. In the outbreak of a highly contagious disease, the control of large-scale epidemic spread depends on factors like the number and size of agglomerates, travel rate…
During infectious disease epidemics, pathogen transmission occurs in host populations made up of interacting subpopulations. Using stochastic simulation and analytical approximations, we examine how outbreak sizes in networked populations…
This study assesses the impact of COVID-19 vaccines through an epidemiological model that quantifies their role in pandemic control. We analyze an SIR-based model incorporating vaccination effects and calculate the basic reproduction…
In this paper we study a mathematical model for an infectious disease such as Cholera without life-time immunity. Due to the different mobility for susceptible, infected human and recovered human hosts, the diffusion coefficients are…
In this paper we present a model describing Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) type epidemics spreading on a dynamic contact network with random link activation and deletion where link ac- tivation can be locally constrained. We use and…
We investigate how key epidemiological parameters shape both seasonal epidemics and the persistence of dengue transmission. Our findings confirm known mechanistic drivers of epidemic variability and introduce a ranking of parameter…
This research gives a thorough examination of an HIV infection model that includes quiescent cells and immune response dynamics in the host. The model, represented by a system of ordinary differential equations, captures the complex…
We develop a stochastic two-patch epidemic model with nonlinear recidivism to investigate infectious disease dynamics in heterogeneous populations. Extending a deterministic framework, we introduce stochasticity to account for random…
Epidemiological contact network models have emerged as an important tool in understanding and predicting the spread of infectious disease, due to their capacity to engage individual heterogeneity that may underlie essential dynamics of a…
Cholera, a severe gastrointestinal infection caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, remains a major threat to public health with a yearly estimated global burden of 2.9 million cases. Although the majority of existing models for the…
Stochastic compartmental models are important tools for understanding the course of infectious diseases epidemics in populations and in prospective evaluation of intervention policies. However, calculating the likelihood for discretely…
It is well known that behavioral changes in contact patterns may significantly affect the spread of an epidemic outbreak. Here we focus on simple endemic models for recurrent epidemics, by modelling the social contact rate as a function of…
In epidemiological modelling, dynamics on networks, and in particular adaptive and heterogeneous networks have recently received much interest. Here we present a detailed analysis of a previously proposed model that combines heterogeneity…
Many infectious diseases can lead to re-infection. We examined the relationship between the prevalence of repeat infection and the basic reproductive number (R0). First we solved a generic, deterministic compartmental model of re-infection…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
Disease awareness in infection dynamics can be modeled with adaptive contact networks whose rewiring rules reflect the attempt by susceptibles to avoid infectious contacts. Simulations of this type of models show an active phase with…
The rates of escape and reversion in response to selection pressure arising from the host immune system, notably the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response, are key factors determining the evolution of HIV. Existing methods for estimating…