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Almost every country in the world is battling to limit the spread of COVID-19. As the world strives to get an effective medication to control the disease, appropriate intervention measures, for now, remains one of the effective methods to…
The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility.…
Stochastic epidemic models, generally more realistic than deterministic counterparts, have often been seen too complex for rigorous mathematical analysis because of level of details it requires to comprehensively capture the dynamics of…
We propose a new mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Global stability of the unique endemic equilibrium is proved. Then, based on data provided by the "Progress Report on the AIDS…
The possibility to analyze, quantify and forecast epidemic outbreaks is fundamental when devising effective disease containment strategies. Policy makers are faced with the intricate task of drafting realistically implementable policies…
Despite the enormous relevance of zoonotic infections to world- wide public health, and despite much effort in modeling individual zoonoses, a fundamental understanding of the disease dynamics and the nature of outbreaks arising in such…
To better predict the dynamics of epidemics such as COVID-19, it is important not only to investigate the network of local and long-range contagious contacts but also to understand the temporal dynamics of infectiousness and detectable…
In this article, we propose a network spread model for HIV epidemics, wherein each individual is represented by a node of the transmission network and the edges are the connections between individuals along which the infection may spread.…
In order to explore the impact of periodically evolving domain on the transmission of disease, we study a SIS reaction-diffusion model with logistic term on a periodically evolving domain. The basic reproduction number ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ is…
Vector-borne diseases with reservoir cycles are complex to understand because new infections come from contacts of the vector with humans and different reservoirs. In this scenario, the basic reproductive number $\mathcal{R}^h_0$ of the…
We study a resource allocation problem for containing an infectious disease in a metapopulation subject to resource uncertainty. We propose a two-stage model where the policy maker seeks to allocate resources in both stages where the second…
The understanding of epidemics on networks has greatly benefited from the recent application of message-passing approaches, which allow to derive exact results for irreversible spreading (i.e. diseases with permanent acquired immunity) in…
Epidemic disease spreading is conventionally often modelled and analyzed by means of rate and diffusion equations, following the paradigms of well-controlled chemical reactions and diffusive dynamics in a test tube. Yet, serious worries…
The COVID-19 pandemic led to widespread interest in epidemiological models. In this context the role of vaccination in influencing the spreading of the disease is of particular interest. There has also been a lot of debate on the role of…
We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…
We consider an epidemiological SIR model with an infection rate depending on the recovered population. We establish sufficient conditions for existence, uniqueness, and stability (local and global) of endemic equilibria and consider also…
A four dimensional ecoepidemiological model consisting of susceptible prey, infected prey, vaccinated prey and predator is formulated and analyzed in the present work. The functional response is assumed to be of Lotka-Volterra type. We…
The contact structure between hosts has a critical influence on disease spread. However, most networkbased models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts. This assumption is known to be at odds with…
A dynamical epidemic model optimized using genetic algorithm and cross validation method to overcome the overfitting problem is proposed. The cross validation procedure is applied so that available data are split into a training subset used…
The COVID-19 epidemic has been spreading around the world for nearly three years, and asymptomatic infections have exacerbated the spread of the epidemic. To evaluate the role of asymptomatic infections in the spread of the epidemic, we…