Related papers: Ebola transmission dynamics: will future Ebola out…
Contact patterns in populations fundamentally influence the spread of infectious diseases. Current mathematical methods for epidemiological forecasting on networks largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed, at least for the…
The emergence or adaptation of pathogens may lead to epidemics, highlighting the need for a thorough understanding of pathogen evolution. The tradeoff hypothesis suggests that virulence evolves to reach an optimal transmission intensity…
A well-known characteristic of pandemics such as COVID-19 is the high level of transmission heterogeneity in the infection spread: not all infected individuals spread the disease at the same rate and some individuals (superspreaders) are…
Pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish Influenza and COVID-19, spread through regions of the World in subsequent waves. There is, however, no consensus on the origin of this pattern, which may originate from human behaviour rather than from the…
Cholera, an acute diarrheal disease, is a serious concern in developing and underdeveloped areas. A qualitative understanding of cholera epidemics aims to foresee transmission patterns based on reported data and mechanistic models. The…
We consider and analyze a dynamic model of random hyperbolic graphs with link persistence. In the model, both connections and disconnections can be propagated from the current to the next snapshot with probability $\omega \in [0, 1)$.…
Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection…
We present a compartmental mathematical model with demography for the spread of the COVID-19 disease, considering also asymptomatic infectious individuals. We compute the basic reproductive ratio of the model and study the local and global…
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a formidable global health challenge, driven by complex spatiotemporal transmission dynamics and influenced by factors such as population mobility and behavioral changes. We propose an Epidemic-Guided Deep Learning…
We study a susceptible-vaccinated--infected--recovered (SVIR) epidemic-spreading model with diversity of infection rate of the individuals. By means of analytical arguments as well as extensive computer simulations, we demonstrate that the…
This paper is concerned with the robustness of the sustained oscillations predicted by an epidemic ODE model defined on contact networks. The model incorporates the spread of awareness among individuals and, moreover, a small inflow of…
The spread of an epidemic disease and the population's collective behavioural response are deeply intertwined, influencing each other's evolution. Such a co-evolution typically has been overlooked in mathematical models, limiting their…
Dengue continues to pose a major global threat, infecting nearly 390 million people annually. Recognizing the pivotal role of vector competence (vc), recent research focuses on mosquito parameters to inform transmission modeling and vector…
We consider the dynamics of a virus spreading through a population that produces a mutant strain with the ability to infect individuals that were infected with the established strain. Temporary cross-immunity is included using a time delay,…
Despite extensive control efforts over the centuries, cholera remains a globally significant health issue. Seasonal emergence of cholera cases has been reported, particularly in the Bengal delta region, which is often synchronized with…
We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold…
Assessing the risk of epidemic spread on networks and developing strategies for its containment is of tremendous practical importance, both due to direct effects in public health and its impact on economies. In this work we present the…
We consider a metapopulation model of cholera describing explicitly the movement of individuals and contaminated water between locations as well as a simple vaccination mechanism. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point…
Test-negative designs (TNDs), a form of case-cohort study, are widely used to evaluate infectious disease interventions, notably for influenza and, more recently, COVID-19 vaccines. TNDs rely on recruiting individuals who are tested for the…
Undulation of infection levels, usually called waves, are not well understood. In this paper we propose a mathematical model that exhibits undulation and decay towards a stable state. The model is a re-interpretation of the original…