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Synthetic data generation, a cornerstone of Generative Artificial Intelligence, promotes a paradigm shift in data science by addressing data scarcity and privacy while enabling unprecedented performance. As synthetic data becomes more…
This study presents a novel approach to quantifying uncertainties in Bayesian model updating, which is effective in sparse or single observations. Conventional uncertainty quantification metrics such as the Euclidean and Bhattacharyya…
The introduction of the Segment Anything Model (SAM) has paved the way for numerous semantic segmentation applications. For several tasks, quantifying the uncertainty of SAM is of particular interest. However, the ambiguous nature of the…
Hyperparameter tuning is a challenging problem especially when the system itself involves uncertainty. Due to noisy function evaluations, optimization under uncertainty can be computationally expensive. In this paper, we present a novel…
The prevalence of noisy-label samples poses a significant challenge in deep learning, inducing overfitting effects. This has, therefore, motivated the emergence of learning with noisy-label (LNL) techniques that focus on separating noisy-…
Data science is a pillar of artificial intelligence (AI), which is transforming nearly every domain of human activity, from the social and physical sciences to engineering and medicine. While data-driven findings in AI offer unprecedented…
We propose principled prediction intervals to quantify the uncertainty of a large class of synthetic control predictions (or estimators) in settings with staggered treatment adoption, offering precise non-asymptotic coverage probability…
Active Domain Adaptation (ADA) adapts models to target domains by selectively labeling a few target samples. Existing ADA methods prioritize uncertain samples but overlook confident ones, which often match ground-truth. We find that…
We investigate the problem of establishing finite-time probabilistic safety guarantees for discrete-time stochastic dynamical systems subject to unknown disturbance distributions, using barrier certificate methods. Our approach develops a…
In its quest for approaches to taming uncertainty in self-adaptive systems (SAS), the research community has largely focused on solutions that adapt the SAS architecture or behaviour in response to uncertainty. By comparison, solutions that…
Deep neural network controllers for autonomous driving have recently benefited from significant performance improvements, and have begun deployment in the real world. Prior to their widespread adoption, safety guarantees are needed on the…
We introduce a general framework that extends Bayesian inference by allowing the researcher to explicitly encode confidence in each source of uncertainty within the model. This mechanism provides a new handle for model design and…
Imperfections and uncertainties in forecast models are often represented in ensemble prediction systems by stochastic perturbations of model equations. In this article, we present a new technique to generate model perturbations. The…
Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully…
We develop a generative model-based approach to Bayesian inverse problems, such as image reconstruction from noisy and incomplete images. Our framework addresses two common challenges of Bayesian reconstructions: 1) It makes use of complex,…
Statistical agencies utilize models to synthesize respondent-level data for release to the general public as an alternative to the actual data records. A Bayesian model synthesizer encodes privacy protection by employing a hierarchical…
Generative models of observations under interventions have been a vibrant topic of interest across machine learning and the sciences in recent years. For example, in drug discovery, there is a need to model the effects of diverse…
Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…
As AI-generated images become increasingly photorealistic, distinguishing them from natural images poses a growing challenge. This paper presents a robust detection framework that leverages multiple uncertainty measures to decide whether to…
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) excels at producing complex data structures (text, images, videos) by learning patterns from training examples. Across scientific disciplines, researchers are now applying generative models to…