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We propose a novel framework for synthesizing counterfactual treatment group data in a target site by integrating full treatment and control group data from a source site with control group data from the target. Departing from conventional…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-14 Borna Bateni , Yubai Yuan , Qi Xu , Annie Qu

This paper studies the identification of causal effects of a continuous treatment using a new difference-in-difference strategy. Our approach allows for endogeneity of the treatment, and employs repeated cross-sections. It requires an…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-18 Xavier D'Haultfoeuille , Stefan Hoderlein , Yuya Sasaki

Recent studies suggest utilizing generative models instead of traditional auto-regressive algorithms for time series forecasting (TSF) tasks. These non-auto-regressive approaches involving different generative methods, including GAN,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jiangxuan Long , Zhao Song , Chiwun Yang

Methods to find counterfactual explanations have predominantly focused on one step decision making processes. In this work, we initiate the development of methods to find counterfactual explanations for decision making processes in which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-28 Stratis Tsirtsis , Abir De , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Counterfactual explanation is one branch of interpretable machine learning that produces a perturbation sample to change the model's original decision. The generated samples can act as a recommendation for end-users to achieve their desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

This paper considers the identification of dynamic treatment effects with panel data, in complex designs where the treatment may not be binary and may not be absorbing. We first show that under no-anticipation and parallel-trends…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-23 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

Present language understanding methods have demonstrated extraordinary ability of recognizing patterns in texts via machine learning. However, existing methods indiscriminately use the recognized patterns in the testing phase that is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Fuli Feng , Jizhi Zhang , Xiangnan He , Hanwang Zhang , Tat-Seng Chua

In randomized trials and observational studies, it is often necessary to evaluate the extent to which an intervention affects a time-to-event outcome, which is only partially observed due to right censoring. For instance, in infectious…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Yutong Jin , Peter B. Gilbert , Aaron Hudson

Inferring the causal effects of time-varying treatments is often hindered by highly variable inverse propensity weights, particularly in settings with limited covariate overlap. Building on the key framework of Imai and Ratkovic (2015), we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Yige Li , María de los Angeles Resa , José R. Zubizarreta

Despite recent advances, goal-directed generation of structured discrete data remains challenging. For problems such as program synthesis (generating source code) and materials design (generating molecules), finding examples which satisfy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-26 Amina Mollaysa , Brooks Paige , Alexandros Kalousis

Generative modeling of time series is a central challenge in time series analysis, particularly under data-scarce conditions. Despite recent advances in generative modeling, a comprehensive understanding of how state-of-the-art generative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Tal Gonen , Itai Pemper , Ilan Naiman , Nimrod Berman , Omri Azencot

Counterfactual simulation - exploring hypothetical consequences under alternative clinical scenarios - holds promise for transformative applications such as personalized medicine and in silico trials. However, it remains challenging due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Yu Akagi , Tomohisa Seki , Toru Takiguchi , Hiromasa Ito , Yoshimasa Kawazoe , Kazuhiko Ohe

Answering counterfactual queries has important applications such as explainability, robustness, and fairness but is challenging when the causal variables are unobserved and the observations are non-linear mixtures of these latent variables,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-16 Zeyu Zhou , Ruqi Bai , Sean Kulinski , Murat Kocaoglu , David I. Inouye

Counterfactual Data Augmentation (CDA) has been one of the preferred techniques for mitigating gender bias in natural language models. CDA techniques have mostly employed word substitution based on dictionaries. Although such…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Ewoenam Kwaku Tokpo , Toon Calders

Counterfactual analysis is intuitively performed by humans on a daily basis eg. "What should I have done differently to get the loan approved?". Such counterfactual questions also steer the formulation of scientific hypotheses. More…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-18 Juliane Weilbach , Sebastian Gerwinn , Melih Kandemir , Martin Fraenzle

Deep learning (DL) models in medical imaging face challenges in generalizability and robustness due to variations in image acquisition parameters (IAP). In this work, we introduce a novel method using conditional denoising diffusion…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-11-01 Pedro Morão , Joao Santinha , Yasna Forghani , Nuno Loução , Pedro Gouveia , Mario A. T. Figueiredo

The Synthetic Control method has pioneered a class of powerful data-driven techniques to estimate the counterfactual reality of a unit from donor units. At its core, the technique involves a linear model fitted on the pre-intervention…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-11-28 Bhishma Dedhia , Roshini Balasubramanian , Niraj K. Jha

Generative models for counterfactual outcomes face two key sources of bias. Confounding bias arises when approaches fail to account for systematic differences between those who receive the intervention and those who do not. Misspecification…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-23 Alex Luedtke , Kenji Fukumizu

Recent text generation models are easy to generate relevant and fluent text for the given text, while lack of causal reasoning ability when we change some parts of the given text. Counterfactual story rewriting is a recently proposed task…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-04-05 Changying Hao , Liang Pang , Yanyan Lan , Yan Wang , Jiafeng Guo , Xueqi Cheng

With the wide use of deep neural networks (DNN), model interpretability has become a critical concern, since explainable decisions are preferred in high-stake scenarios. Current interpretation techniques mainly focus on the feature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-19 Fan Yang , Ninghao Liu , Mengnan Du , Xia Hu