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This paper introduces a new stochastic process with values in the set Z of integers with sign. The increments of process are Poisson differences and the dynamics has an autoregressive structure. We study the properties of the process and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-12 Giulia Carallo , Roberto Casarin , Christian P. Robert

This note aims at presenting several new theoretical results for the compound Poisson point process, which follows the work of Zhang \emph{et al.} [Insurance~Math.~Econom.~59(2014), 325-336]. The first part provides a new characterization…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-10 Huiming Zhang , Xiaoxu Wu

We present an approximate Bayesian inference approach for estimating the intensity of an inhomogeneous Poisson process, where the intensity function is modelled using a Gaussian process (GP) prior via a sigmoid link function. Augmenting the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-06 Christian Donner , Manfred Opper

Data of the form of event times arise in various applications. A simple model for such data is a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) which is specified by a rate function that depends on time. We consider the problem of having access to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-22 Duncan Barrack , Simon Preston

Monte Carlo simulations of diffusion processes often introduce bias in the final result, due to time discretization. Using an auxiliary Poisson process, it is possible to run simulations which are unbiased. In this article, we propose such…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-09 Louis Paulot

Stacy distribution defined for the first time in 1961 provides a flexible framework for modelling of a wide range of real-life behaviours. It appears under different names in the scientific literature and contains many useful particular…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-21 Pavlina K. Jordanova , Mladen Savov , Assen Tchorbadjieff , Milan Stehlík

The paper studies a class of critical Markov branching processes with infinite variance of the offspring distribution. The processes admit also an immigration component at the jump-points of a non-homogeneous Poisson process, assuming that…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-07 Kosto V. Mitov , Nikolay M. Yanev

We investigate the Poisson regression method for Markov and semi-Markov jump processes from a nonparametric angle, allowing the lengths of the time and duration intervals in the partition to vary with the number of observations. Imposing no…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Martin Bladt , Rasmus Frigaard Lemvig

Gaussian process regression is a popular method for non-parametric probabilistic modeling of functions. The Gaussian process prior is characterized by so-called hyperparameters, which often have a large influence on the posterior model and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-18 Andreas Svensson , Johan Dahlin , Thomas B. Schön

The Power Law Process, also known as Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process, has been used in various aspects, one of which is the software reliability assessment. Specifically, by using its intensity function to compute the rate of change of a…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-06 Freeh Alenezi , Chris. Tsokos

This article presents a new continuous-time modelling framework for multivariate time series of counts which have an infinitely divisible marginal distribution. The model is based on a mixed moving average process driven by L\'{e}vy noise -…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-11 Almut E. D. Veraart

The problem of parameter estimation by i.i.d. observations of an inhomogeneous Poisson process is considered in situation of misspecification. The model is that of a Poissonian signal observed in presence of a homogeneous Poissonian noise.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-21 O V Chernoyarov , S Dachian , Yu A Kutoyants

The Poisson process is one of the simplest stochastic processes defined in continuous time, having interesting mathematical properties, leading, in many situations, to applications mathematically treatable. One of the limitations of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-26 Thomas Freud , Pablo M. Rodriguez

Many problems arising in applications result in the need to probe a probability distribution for functions. Examples include Bayesian nonparametric statistics and conditioned diffusion processes. Standard MCMC algorithms typically become…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-20 S. L. Cotter , G. O. Roberts , A. M. Stuart , D. White

A new two-parameter discrete distribution, namely the PoiG distribution is derived by the convolution of a Poisson variate and an independently distributed geometric random variable. This distribution generalizes both the Poisson and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-11 Anupama Nandi , Subrata Chakraborty , Aniket Biswas

In this work, we propose new matrix- and tensor-based methodologies for estimating multivariate intensity functions of inhomogeneous point processes. By viewing multivariate intensity functions as infinite-dimensional matrices or tensors…

A common assumption when modeling queuing systems is that arrivals behave like a Poisson process with constant parameter. In practice, however, call arrivals are often observed to be significantly overdispersed. This motivates that in this…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-07 Mariska Heemskerk , Julia Kuhn , Michel Mandjes

Fractional Poisson processes, a rapidly growing area of non-Markovian stochastic processes, are useful in statistics to describe data from counting processes when waiting times are not exponentially distributed. We show that the fractional…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2013-10-14 Markus Kreer , Ayse Kizilersu , Anthony W. Thomas

We consider nonparametric invariant density and drift estimation for a class of multidimensional degenerate resp. hypoelliptic diffusion processes, so-called stochastic damping Hamiltonian systems or kinetic diffusions, under anisotropic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-24 Niklas Dexheimer , Claudia Strauch

Cox processes model overdispersed point process data via a latent stochastic intensity, but both nonparametric estimation of the intensity model and posterior inference over intensity paths are typically intractable, relying on expensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Xinlong Du , Harsha Honnappa , Vinayak Rao