Related papers: A Non-homogeneous Count Process: Marginalizing a P…
Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the…
We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…
Factor analysis for high-dimensional data is a canonical problem in statistics and has a wide range of applications. However, there is currently no factor model tailored to effectively analyze high-dimensional count responses with…
Gaussian process modulated Poisson processes provide a flexible framework for modelling spatiotemporal point patterns. So far this had been restricted to one dimension, binning to a pre-determined grid, or small data sets of up to a few…
Overdispersed count data are modelled with likelihood and non-likelihood approaches. Likelihood approaches include the Poisson mixtures with three distributions, the gamma, the lognormal, and the inverse Gaussian distributions.…
We study linear statistics of a class of determinantal processes which interpolate between Poisson and GUE/Ginibre statistics in dimension 1 or 2. These processes are obtained by performing an independent Bernoulli percolation on the…
Dendritic spines, which are small protrusions on the dendrites of a neuron, are of interest in neuroscience as they are related to cognitive processes such as learning and memory. We analyse the distribution of spine locations on six…
We prove tail and moment inequalities for multiple stochastic integrals on the Poisson space and for Poisson $U$-statistics. We use them to demonstrate the Law of the Iterated Logarithm for these processes when the intensity of the Poisson…
The problem of finding the expected value of a statistic of a locally stable point process in a bounded region is addressed. We propose an adaptive importance sampling for solving the problem. In our proposal, we restrict the importance…
Copulas allow a flexible and simultaneous modeling of complicated dependence structures together with various marginal distributions. Especially if the density function can be represented as the product of the marginal density functions and…
We study weak convergence of a sequence of point processes to a scale-invariant simple point process. For a deterministic sequence $(z_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$ of positive real numbers increasing to infinity as $n \to \infty$ and a sequence…
We construct a general stochastic process and prove weak convergence results. It is scaled in space and through the parameters of its distribution. We show that our simplified scaling is equivalent to time scaling used frequently. The…
We propose to test the homogeneity of a Poisson process observed on a finite interval. In this framework, we first provide lower bounds for the uniform separation rates in $\mathbb{L}^2$ norm over classical Besov bodies and weak Besov…
High-dimensional self-exciting point processes have been widely used in many application areas to model discrete event data in which past and current events affect the likelihood of future events. In this paper, we are concerned with…
The Poisson distribution is the default choice of likelihood for probabilistic models of count data. However, due to the equidispersion contraint of the Poisson, such models may have predictive uncertainty that is artificially inflated.…
Stochastic evolution equations with compensated Poisson noise are considered in the variational approach with monotone and coercive coefficients. Here the Poisson noise is assumed to be time-homogeneous with $\sigma$-finite intensity…
We study infinite-server queues in which the arrival process is a Cox process (or doubly stochastic Poisson process), of which the arrival rate is given by shot noise. A shot-noise rate emerges as a natural model, if the arrival rate tends…
Modelling the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease is a complex task. Not only it is difficult to accurately model the inherent non-stationarity and heterogeneity of transmission, but it is nearly impossible to describe,…
This paper introduces multivariate Poisson autoregressive models with exogenous covariates (PoARX) for modelling multivariate time series of counts. We obtain conditions for the PoARX process to be stationary and ergodic before proposing a…
Probabilistic forecasting models for joint distributions of targets in irregular time series with missing values are a heavily under-researched area in machine learning, with, to the best of our knowledge, only two Models have been…